The gold market has been feeling pretty shaky lately, and if you've been watching the charts, you know exactly what I’m talking about. It’s been a real rollercoaster, mostly driven by the heating up of geopolitical tensions.
We all know the story the tension between the US and Iran is back in the spotlight. At first, things looked hopeful for a peace deal, which actually put some selling pressure on gold. But lately? News about Iran tightening its nuclear policies and ramping up military capacity has pushed the safe haven sentiment right back to the front. On top of that, everyone is waiting on the Fed to drop a hint about interest rates. Basically, gold is stuck in a tug of war between war jitters and upcoming US economic data.
What’s Happening on the Charts?
Looking at the technicals, things are actually pretty interesting. Gold had a clear reaction when it hit the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. After a solid rejection there, price action has been trying to find its groove again.
Here are the key levels I’m keeping an eye on right now:
Support & Demand Zones:
We’ve got Green Box 1 sitting in the 4,026.276 - 3,966.236 zone.
Down below, there’s Green Box 2 lurking in the 3,412.705 - 3,355.454 range, which is my last resort area if things start dipping lower.
Fibonacci Retracement:
The price tried to push up but got stuck right at the 78.60% (4,720.540) level.
Right now, it’s fighting to hold its ground around the 50.00% (4,496.735) mark. If it can hang on to this support, we might see another bounce back toward the upside.
We are definitely in a crucial phase for gold. Keep a close watch on the upcoming US economic data especially the PCE and GDP numbers. Those will probably be the real triggers that decide whether gold continues its rally or breaks below those major support levels.
For those of you trading this, just make sure your risk management is tight. Don't fall for the fomo, and definitely check that economic calendar so you aren't caught off guard by sudden spikes when the big news drops.
Hope this helps you get a better grip on what’s happening. Does anyone see it differently, or are you holding positions at any of these levels?