Do you always think you missed the pump? Do you always cringe when the coin pumps right after you sold or dumps right after you bought?
If the answer is YES to these questions, then do not worry. You are not the only one. Almost all of us are in the same situation. Nobody knows anything when it comes to the market unless you are the one manipulating the pump and dump.
I was listening to a crypto podcast today. The guests were renowned analysts. When the host asked them how confident they are in their #bitcoin price prediction. That's when the guests mentioned how difficult it is to predict the market. The guests were explaining the vulnerabilities in humans when it comes to risk taking.
We have all the information required to minimize the risk or even remove the risk from prediction and economic projections. But human emotion is the cheater. We are influenced by our judgment and add a layer of insecurity to our predictions and/or projections.
One of the guests noted that the "trading" affairs will soon be 100% bots. That is the only way to remove emotion and judgement from trading. Anyone that is human will have flaws to mix right information with emotions.
That is why we are human and not bots. It is good and bad. Adding human intelligence and emotion will make trading fun and risky. If not, trading would be really dry, almost a robot-like affair. It is fun to play with emotions but that is not always a winning affair. The bot trading may not be fun but is always consistent and based on data and information minus emotions.
How does emotion affect us outside of trading?
#hive is the perfect example of how emotion guides you in your decision making. You and I must have come to Hive to make quick money by blogging and engaging on a platform. At least that was my initial motivation when I joined the platform three years ago. It was about having fun and then earning tokens on the side. The earning potential was a big part of my initial engagement. Looking back at the platform, I have earned a lot for sure. But I have invested much more than I initially thought I would.
The emotion and proximity bias have influenced my investment decision in addition to the good investment potential of this platform in the context of web 3 potential. I am always on the platform, and I know about Hive much more than others who are not in here. That's the reason those who are inside the ecosystem tend to invest more as they are emotionally attached and know better.
Even being on Hive all the time we don't know anything about the Hive token behaviour. We are aware of the occasional Korean pump and dump. We know the general market trend. But we do not know anything about bull or bear market or how the market would reach to each wave of information. If anybody thinks they know better than others, then either they are lying, or they still don't know their limitation.
Not knowing the market is the reason I stopped predicting token prices. This is the reason I consolidated my focus to only a few specialized crypto projects.
Bitcoin- an obvious OG that I need to have
ATOM- an ecosystem that may have potential
HIVE- a platform where I am 24X7 > BNB- a coin that helped me made my crypto portfolio
Not to trade but to accumulate. Just for your information, I have never made money trading any tokens in the last three years. Yes, I HODL and made profit but trading is out of my league.
Emotional decision – My Hive goals
I am emotional when it comes to Hive. I treat Hive as my prized possession. By Hive I mean the Hive token and the other products within Hive that I interact with.
I aim to achieve 10K HP and 25K LP by the end of 2023. It looks like I am not that patient. I powered up LEO to reach 18,500 LP this #lpud. I also powered up to reach 6350 HP. That means if I continue to do what I am doing now, I will have to revise my goals mid-year. Always a good problem to have.
Again, the decision to power up faster is an emotional decision. I feel that the prices are going up and if I wait until 2023 December, I may not have as many Hive and Leo. I may be right, but I may be wrong. This is where emotion came better of our rationale.