In the world of cryptocurrencies historic bottoms don’t come every day
Today HIVE stands at its deepest point in 4 years – price at $0.1243 below the 100-week moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at just 21.5.
But history repeats itself.
Every time the weekly RSI dropped below 25 HIVE witnessed dramatic rallies in the following months.
This analysis is not just numbers — it’s a story of potential transformation from despair to recovery.
Since April 2021 when HIVE reached $3.40 a long downward journey began inside a clear descending channel.
The price gradually declined tested successive supports and finally hit the 0.11 – 0.107 zone twice in 2024 and 2025.
Now?
The price is at the channel bottom, touching the 100-week moving average from below and screaming oversold.
The Indicators Tell One Story: “The Weakness Is Over”
1. Weekly RSI at 21.5 – A Rare Signal
- This level only occurs once every 2–3 years.
- In the past:
- 2020 (RSI 23): Rally from $0.08 to $0.40 (+400%)
- 2022 (RSI 19): Surge from $0.18 to $0.56 (+210%)
- Now? RSI at 21.5 — the strongest buy signal in years.
2. MACD: Bearish Momentum Is Fading
- The MACD line is still negative but the histogram is narrowing rapidly.
- This means: The bears are losing strength.
- A bullish crossover could occur within 1 to 3 weeks — marking the start of a new wave.
Price Pattern: Double Bottom in Formation
The chart clearly shows two matching lows at 0.107 – 0.110:
- First bottom: Late 2024
- Second bottom: Late 2025
The Three Scenarios – What Will Happen?
Scenario 1: The Major Reversal (60% Probability)
- Trigger: Break above 0.13 + weekly close above it
- Path: 0.165 → 0.36 – 0.37
- Reason: Extreme oversold + double bottom + shifting momentum
Scenario 2: Quiet Accumulation (25%)
- Price stays between 0.11 – 0.107
- Extended accumulation phase
- Ideal for long-term investors
Scenario 3: Further Decline (15%)
- Trigger: Break below 0.11
- Target: $0.08 or lower
- But? Extreme oversold makes this unlikely
Conclusion: A Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity
| Factor | Reality |
|---|---|
| Price | Channel bottom + double bottom |
| Indicators | Historic oversold + weakening momentum |
| Pattern | Ready for upside breakout |
| Opportunity | First-class |
HIVE is not “dead” — it’s at the accumulation point.
What to Watch Now
- Does price hold above 0.125? → Critical weekly support
- Will it break 0.107 strongly? → Official reversal signal
- Is RSI continuing to rise? → Confirmation of rebound
“The market doesn’t punish buyers at the bottom — it punishes those who miss the opportunity.”
**HIVE today is not just a low-priced coin — it’s a recovery story waiting to be written.
Pure technical analysis – not investment advice.
Twitter: https://x.com/Robert_Stanb
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