Yesterday, the Commerce Department figures for the US gross domestic product came and the number fell at a 4.8% annualized rate in the first quarter vs economists expectations of a 3.8% drop….cause…COVID-19.
Yesterday, the consumer confidence for April was reported and the number fell to a six-year low of 86.9. In March, this reading stood at 118.8. This marks the largest one-month drop since December 1973…cause…COVID-19.
This morning, the Chicago PMI, a measure of business conditions in the Chicago came out and the number fell to 35.4 in April, its lowest reading since 2009…cause…COVID-19.
This morning, the U.S. Labor Department released its weekly jobless claims and another 3.839 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits. This brings the six week total to 30 million workers…cause…COVID-19.
The good news is that American economy is starting to up again. States like Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida are opening, yet the process has been slow. Without a vaccine for COVID-19, people will be reluctant to go shopping or visit a restaurant…putting a damper on the V-shape recover.
Speaking of shopping, Simon Property Group intends to open its malls beginning May 1st depending upon state and local stay-at-home orders. Way is this a big deal. Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) is a global leader in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Their properties span across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales.
Speaking of restaurants, Darden Restaurants Inc., Olive Garden’s parent company, opened most of its dining rooms in Georgia and Tennessee. All employees must wear a mask. The restaurant has a new social distance friendly layout. The dining room layout has been changed in order to promote social distancing and the restaurants will be limited to parties of six or fewer.
Last week, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates went live on LinkedIn to answer questions about the novel coronavirus, including what we should expect life to look like over the next few months, and the next several years.
Gates said he believes the U.S. could begin opening back up in early June, if things go well. But he describes this "opening up" more as a "semi-normal" than a return to what many are used to.
"Will people want to go and travel?" Gates questioned. "Will they want to go to restaurants? Will they even think, you know, buying a new home is an appropriate thing? So, even once the government is saying these activities are OK, we can't expect the demand side to re-emerge overnight."
The only thing we can do is continue to interpret what the charts are saying...don't fight the Feds. So will the 24700 level hold on the DOW...stay tuned?
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
