I disagree.

Supply and demand are very much the key factors like always.

Of course, OTC trades affect the public valuation of Bitcoin. Bitcoins being drained from exchanges certainly will not cause the price to crash. This is empirically true. The mining reward halvings are what drives the price action of Bitcoin in four-year cycles. The less miners will be dumping on exchanges, the higher the price given constant demand. Demand for BTC exists because fiat is proving to be such a bad store of value and because the world needs a store of value.