I can't get into gear today and should have probably taken the day off from work, however I have some important meetings that I need as prerequisites to some other tasks. Motivation is low.
Since I can't get into the groove, I may as well escape for a few minutes before the first of the meetings into a fantasy land of crypto dreaming and ask a question.
Based on your current holdings, what bare minimum "x" increase would you need in order to have "enough"?
Say for example, the market went 5x, would that be enough? 10x? 20x?
I say bare minimum because obviously, people don't have a ceiling value.
I was looking at the ridiculous value of Doge the other day, which is sitting at 64 billion dollars at the moment, which is a farce and indicative of how little price is actually tied to value. Most of these tokens are going to have short half-lives, as the attention of the crowds that push into them will be drawn to the next and then the next. However, what would it look like if HIVE had a 64 billion dollar market cap?
The supply of Hive is currently:
which is 2.3 million HIVE less since HBDstabilizer started reducing the inflation into deflation at the end of March. Remember, it has also simultaneously added about that same amount extra into the Hive Development Fund for future development needs on the chain - which is awesome.
But a 64 billion dollar market cap on HIVE would equate to 64B/380M = 168 dollar HIVE.
lols
I have 242,000 HIVE powered up, which would mean that my account would be worth
40.6 million dollars
Seems reasonable.
I think that when it is framed like this in context, it is obvious how ridiculous the price of Doge is. But, that doesn't stop people driving the price up and it doesn't stop people chasing this kind of result. The types of people who are now getting into crypto, do not care about fundamentals and utility at the moment, as for them it is just a game. It is only when they have their value liquidated that they care.
However, I suspect that most people in crypto now are not creators themselves, meaning that they are consumer class. There is nothing wrong with this, but in time, new consumer items need to be brought to market and they will se value gather around them. This is why the projects that will last will have to have utility and this is also why the useless will fall by the wayside.
But, none of that matters now as people are chasing the dream of having something for nothing, or very, very little. Crypto is great for the people chasing workless wealth as it promises returns that far outpace investments, as long as enough people ape-in on top. But eventually, as more people get burned at the peaks, the aping will stop. I think this is already starting to happen in DeFi pools, where people are looking for stability of return, rather than maximum yield.
Markets are driven by sentiment and people are sentimental. Elon Musk Tweets and the markets rise or dip - It is ridiculous. But, "consumer confidence" is ridiculous anyway. And yes, the crypto markets are a form of consumerism too, as the token itself is the product, even if it has no practical application. How much are you willing to pay for a Tesla that is a concept only and doesn't actually exist?
You'd want to see a prototype at least, wouldn't you?
Consumer sentiment doesn't care about HIVE, even though it has not only a prototype, but years of experience and working businesses built on it. Elon Musk doesn't care about Bitcoin energy consumption, because if he did, he wouldn't be pushing Doge, he would be on something like HIVE, that is far, far more efficient. Not only that, HIVE gets mined by people doing what they normally do online anyway, so there is very little "extra" needed in terms of activity, other than a few witness nodes that can run off the power of a lightbulb to process transactions. It is clean, scalable, secure, fast and free to transact. If energy consumption is an issue, if transaction cost is an issue, if speed is an issue, if security is an issue... HIVE offers a very attractive model that covers all of these things.
But, the market doesn't actually care.
Hive doesn't fulfill the dream of the workless wealth chasers, because it involves too much work. It is interesting to note that so many people are looking for social causes to bandwagon onto to feel a part of something, but in crypto, the same people like the idea of not having to actually participate. I think this pretty much sums up the value of participation in the majority of the social movements out there - it is all lip service.
In crypto the talk is about "diamond hands" but those diamonds only live for a couple months, weeks or days before they disintegrate into carbon dust. The consumer sentiment is very much, non-committal when it comes to investing and as such, the majority of what has been built is going to wither and die rapidly, as there is no reason to hold value their other than yield and that will fall away with attention. People will go in hard and fast, create hype and then pull out in the hope they can beat others out of the pool. Cryptocurrencies are cheap to create and because "investors" do not care about fundamentals, they just need a basic idea that is attractive enough to sound like it might be useful one day down the track and, billions can be made.
While there is PoW, PoS, dPoS and whatever else, no proof is actually required - most cryptos have o working product and are concept only, at least back in the day, the snakeoil salesman had to at least put something into a bottle to sell.
When my account is worth 40 million dollars, my vote will be worth 2,300 dollars each, 23,000 dollars a day, 8.5M dollars a year.
Sounds reasonable.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]