Now is a good time for a Hive reminder.
While most of the time Hive users are used to the price of HIVE languishing in the basement, when prices do increase rapidly, it seems to have a strong effect on many people. Of course, there is joy and elation that comes with increased value, but then there are also other emotions that arise, like regret. Selling too early, holding too long, or not performing the right actions consistently to earn before. When prices are up, many have the sense that they have missed out, and will react, often in less than impressive ways.
People can do with their stake as they wish, but when it comes to future earnings, well, that is dictated by stake. It doesn't matter whether the price of HIVE is up or down, the mechanics of the blockchain are the same. Yet, price does impact on behaviour of those with stake, and those without, and there is no uniform response. However, there are many generalizations that can be made, but one that is consistently observed is that people expect to earn, regardless of how they have behaved in the past.
I wrote an article a few days back about learning about Hive, but will assume that most people haven't done so. For instance, the reward pool fluctuates slightly, but regardless of the price, it stays pretty much the same. The reason is that while the value in other currency might shift, it is calculated in HIVE.
For instance, this is the value of the fund when I wrote that article:
And this is the value of the Reward fund now-ish:
Around about the same amount of HIVE, but 170K more in value. And it is from this that the rewards come, but the author and curation rewards are dictated by vested stake. But, all things remaining equal, if an account vote delivers exactly 10 HIVE and nothing changes between then and the payout, 5 HIVE will be earned in curation, and the author will earn 2.5 HIVE and 2.5 HIVE worth of HBD.
Going on that model, let's make it easy.
HIVE @ $1
5 HIVE Curation to voting account (distributed as HIVE POWER)
2.5 HIVE to Author (distributed as HIVE POWER)
2.5 HBD to Author (As liquid)
HIVE @ $10
5 HIVE Curation to voting account (distributed as HIVE POWER)
2.5 HIVE to Author (distributed as HIVE POWER)
25 HBD to Author (As liquid)
Only the amount of HBD changes, but the HIVE distribution is identical. So, this means that the author gets a liquid amount that they can do with what they want immediately, and some powered up as stake. While the curator gets an amount of HIVE that will take 13 weeks to make liquid.
Now, there are other games in play to consider. For instance, if HBD is able to hold the $1 USD loose-peg, it is easy to calculate what amount of HIVE it can purchase. And, this is where an author can make some decent gains to increase their stake, whilst still keeping it all on Hive. Because, if they are earning more HBD when the prices are high, and then lets say 1 year from now the prices are at half the amount, they can buy more HIVE back than they earned.
I am trying to keep this simple for my head too.
So, let's say in that year, HIVE is worth 10 dollars and nothing changed all year (wouldn't that be nice), and there were 100 authored posts, each earning $100. Then, this model fits:
100x
5 HIVE Curation to voting account (distributed as HIVE POWER)
2.5 HIVE to Author (distributed as HIVE POWER)
25 HBD to Author (As liquid)
Now, lets say that there are only a voting account and an author account.
After the 100th post pays out, each has earned an identical amount in value, but one has all powered up, and the other has 50% of the value liquid.
Curator
100 x 5 HIVE = 500 powered up (@10 worth $5000)
Author
100 x 2.5 HIVE = 250 powered up (@10 worth $2500)
100 x 25 HBD = 2500 liquid (@1 worth $2500)
Now for the purpose of this illustration, the very next day HIVE flash-crashes and loses 50% of its value and drops to $5. Now, the curator has 2500 worth of value, and the author has 3750. At this point, the author decides to buy 500 HIVE with their HBD. And then the price springs back to $10 again.
Curator
100 x 5 HIVE = 500 powered up (@10 worth $5000)
Author
100 x 2.5 HIVE = 250 powered up (@10 worth $2500)
500 HIVE liquid = 5000 (@10 worth $5000)
Of course, this is an unrealistic scenario, but with the price fluctuations, it is possible for an author to use their HBD to take advantage and increase their holdings while still on the platform, using the convert or internal markets. Then, with the liquid HBD, it is also possible to earn 15% interest (set by witnesses) on that HBD while waiting for the opportunity also, with a near liquid (3 day unlock) position. And of course, that HBD that is liquid can be used to buy other assets, or taken off-site for spending or trading into alternative tokens.
To each their own.
And, this is very important to remember, because while you might have assumptions and expectations, on Hive what you know or don't know, and how you behave or don't behave - is your responsibility. You can post what you like, or develop what you like, but whether it gets supported by anyone with stake, you have no direct control over. You can influence it in various ways though, which in general comes down to topics, quality, interest, interaction and behaviour.
But there are no guarantees.
Hive curators with stake tend to have their own standards for voting and downvoting. You might not agree with them, and they might be inconsistently applied anyway, but - they can do with their stake as they choose.
Regardless of price of the token, no one is entitled to future earnings, outside of what their powered up stake draws on the pool in curation. And, this includes witnesses. No one earning anything now should take it for granted and believe their are entitled to it, regardless of how long they have been on the blockchain. Support shifts focus all the time, because attention and preference is constantly changing focus also.
So, regardless of price, how you behave is up to you. And how you react to the behaviour of others, is also up to you. We all have good days and bad days, but if you are more negative on Hive than positive, and are constantly having bad days here, perhaps you aren't suited for the current environment. It is okay not to be, but it doesn't mean the environment is at fault. A fish out of water suffocates just as surely as I would drown in the middle of the ocean. What is great about Hive though, is that there are many places for a fish to swim, and many places for a landlubber to walk.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Note: While these kinds of things are obvious to some, they aren't known to many. Because of this, I want to introduce bits and pieces of basics, and also some of the behaviours associated around Hive, because there are new people coming in through various gateways all of the time, and it is useful to get a grasp of the ecosystem, without having to read guides.
I am not a fan of most Hive guides, unless it id for something highly technical, because the "help" they offer is generally pretty generic and unhelpful- and often misinformed about what actually works and does not. The average person doesn't need a huge amount of detail and are unlikely to apply most detail anyway. So, rules of thumb, basic directions and a bit of a story to tie them together, will go a long way to covering the needs of most users.
Through content creation at least, there is no fast way to wealth on Hive, and content creation alone is likely not going to be enough for wealth creation, without learning about all of the other mechanisms and influences in play, as well as the opportunities to empower ourselves. Our behaviours are our own.