Here we go again?
Perhaps.
Yet I think that this little bump of hype will see a retraction, even though there is a lot of room for it to move upward before that happens. People seem excited at the prospect of Bitcoin ETFs, so they are moving into Bitcoin hoping for a double-run up the ladder, which is why the majority of alts aren't following. However, that hype will likely die a bit and there will be some consolidation, until the real drive happens.
Having said that, it is not inconceivable that this first push starts touching ATHs also, as quite often, hitting the ATH is a trigger for a selloff, where it dumps for a bit until people realize that there is more to come. This allows those who didn't spend their profits on a Lambo, to buy in again and catch it on the way up. This also means that there is lower sell supply, thinning out the order books and setting up conditions for higher velocity, with lower capital injection.
At least, there are some similarities between where we are now, and the lead into the ATH runs. The difference is that in 2020, the low was at $3400, and at the start of this year it was just under $17000. That is a 250% difference, but that doesn't mean the blowoff ATH will be 2.5x the last - because it could be higher.
My very much layman and non-professional opinion is, that once BTC goes high and shakes all the "weak hands" free of their holdings, the real capitalists will do what they do best, capitalize. With low sell supply, they can drive the price up on low volume, increasing hype immensely, and then once everyone FOMOs in again or for the first time, dump fractions of their holdings for far more than they would have a short time ago.
If they play it right, rather than dumping hard, they can take advantage of the hype for longer and catch a few peaks and troughs near the top, and as it starts to lose energy, dump hard. And it will dump hard, because they will have a lot to dump, and those weak hands won't have much to buy with, blowing their small load too early, or waiting until it is below where they sold, so they don't make a loss.
It is unlikely that it is all up from here and there will be pullbacks, but it is looking and perhaps more importantly, feeling like there is some positivity in the markets. And with a 12% move on BTC in 24 hours, it is also interesting to note how the mainstream media who has all but forgotten about crypto (except for how it is going to be legislated), are quick to scramble aboard the bandwagon again.
Like clockwork.
Whilst crypto people are of the "it's inevitable" sentiment on the future of the industry, it is also inevitable how mainstream media reacts, as well as retail investors. Whilst there has been a couple years of accumulation possibility, it will be only now that people will start buying into the markets, because they will think that other people are buying in too. They will be right of course, but the goal really is to buy before other people buy, right?
But, while it was too expensive to buy Bitcoin at 17,000, there will be people buying at 35,000 instead. And, there will be people buying it at 68,000 as well, because they will speculate that it is going to 100,000 - and a 50% return in what would likely be a month of activity at that point (if it gets there), is nothing to complain about.
And then there are those who are taking a bigger risk (perhaps) and rather than looking for 100% on Bitcoin now, will buy some alts and look for 1000% instead. For instance, the last ATH on Bitcoin saw HIVE spike from a low of 11 cents to a high near $3.50 in about six months. That is a 3000% increase - 30x. If it were to do the same this time around, that would be a peak of about 9 dollars. Wouldn't be too bad!
I am not saying it will do that, but there is always the potential, and depending on how buyers and sellers act to affect supply, that peak could be even higher, for a very limited time. It might also be much, much lower. But what is a fair amount to predict for the value?
3 dollars? 5 dollars?
No one ever really knows what it is going to be, otherwise we'd all be rich, and being rich would be useless. However, to take advantage of high values, one has to own some of the resources. There is no point in prices going insane, for those who hold nothing.
But once it starts, it can move very quickly, so those without will miss out.
There is always next time, right?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]