While the pump was nice to see on Hive (which could have been caused by the Huobi hype), what was also great to see was that for the first time ever in the long, long (1 month) history of Hive, the trading volume stretched past 1 Million over a 24 hour period (from coinmarketcap) That is pretty cool.
What is also interesting to note is, as price is above that of STEEM, everyone who got the drop (and held) has more than doubled their value in a month. While it is very early days and this is more speculative pump than much else, volume is an indicator of speculative interest and this is a good sign for the future if it continues in the same vein.
While HIVE is a content delivery blockchain, the blockchain itself is content agnostic - it doesn't care what content gets delivered or consumed. Speculators however - don't care either. What they are speculating on (other than the immediate up and down) is that the community is going to generate enough interest that the tokens they buy will go up in price.
When we think of speculation, we generally look quite short, but that is just the way we think. All of us who are here in some way or another looking at the future value of the token are speculators. For me who powers up everything (other than the bits I trade for fun to try and collect a few more tokens and stay in practice), I am speculating that the future of the tokens I hold will be higher than what I could sell them at today.
- Will the value of the coin go up or down?
- Will SMTs be introduced?
- Will Resource Credits have value?
- Will curation with stake offer a return?
- Will I be able to invest into projects with stake for percentage ownership?
- Will businesses form and airdrop value to me on my stake?
Can you answer these questions today, tomorrow or in five years? How long is your speculative period? Are you looking for an exit now or are you looking to see what happens well down the track?
We are living in an increasingly economically challenged world and the complications that are being created are going to affect every single one of us in some way. Because of this uncertainty, there is going to be the pressure to take the short gain over the long, as time exposure is risk exposure and our brain works on what it can see and have today, not tomorrow. It is likely one of the reasons that instant gratification is spreading at epidemic proportions - and perhaps killing more than Covid-19 ever will.
Economic dysfunction is a killer.
And, we live in an increasingly dysfunctional economy where just like in a dysfunctional family, parts are not working well together. The entire economic system that we use was created far in the past and didn't factor in the global world where speed of communication allows for the transfer of wealth instantaneously and its usage far from where it was collected. It didn't factor in trillion dollar yearly generation from organizations that can transfer their funds and pay their taxes where they choose. It wasn't designed for a global supply chain that places inter-dependencies on all functions, no matter how large or small - the economic tools were built for a completely different job.
As such, I believe that the future is actually quite certain in one area - the economy as we know it is going to have to radically shift course in order to keep operating or, be replaced altogether. All of what is going on now is just a precursor, a warning light flashing, CRASH IMMINENT.
But that crash isn't going to be like in the past where the stockmarkets fall heavily and unemployment becomes the new normal - it is going to be a crash of the entire economic model.
In times of uncertainty, we generally fall back on our habits, our past. And when it comes to investing, this means that we fall back on the traditional mechanisms - the safe money - but is it safe? This is the speculation on any investment as there is always some time gap between the bet laid and the outcome - and in that gap, a lot can happen.
I took a gamble on Steem and it didn't play out as I had hoped - but it did teach me a lot and give a lifeline into Hive to take a second bite of the cherry. The gamble on Hive is whether or not those from Steem have learned lessons on what does and doesn't add value.
Increasingly, investors into the space aren't going to give a fuck about lip-service and promise-ware, they are going to want to see development that attracts valuable users and usecases and outcomes that return on their investment. Those who are looking long-term where most of the institutional money will end up working, are going to back projects that can deliver a return consistently long-term.
While individuals might be able to get in and out of projects quickly, the institutions are going to want a little more stability and a little less speculation please, as they will need to deliver decades into the future, not through high risk pump and dumps - and a lot of their choices will be made through legislation to protect the investors they represent - otherwise they will take on high risk every time - as it is all playing with someone else's money.
But, this is my speculation on the future and the timeframe for delivery is very much "up in the air" as the manipulation and ability for corruption is so high that the game can be prolonged for a very long time, create a false sense of security - and then dump very hard on those who protected themselves by taking the safe money option.
But don't listen to me as I am also willing to live in the gutter and am not scared to die - I don't plan on doing either - but the latter, I don't have much say in.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]