Financial experts say that plans to use the digital ruble could cost Russia's banks a total of $536 million a year.
Forbes Russia says that if plans to adopt CBDC go as planned, the country's shopping industry could get a big boost.
Based on what experts said, the retail market could make an extra $857 million a year once the CBDC is widely used.
**There are plans to roll out the digital ruble.
Elvira Nabiullina, the governor of the Central Bank, said last week that the digital ruble will be used "no earlier" than 2025.
Before this, the Finance Ministry said that "all" Russians would be able to use the CBDC at some point this year.
They said that the digital ruble was on track to "occupy a niche in the domestic retail payments market." Yakov and Partners used to work with McKinsey in Russia.
They said that the code would "partially take away" market share from payments made with bank cards.
And banks might start losing money three to five years after "full-scale" acceptance efforts.
**"Stores will make a lot of money with digital rubble."
Yakov and Partners said that Russian stores would probably start using the coin because it will get rid of the fees that banks charge each other for transactions.
Also, CBDC purchases happen right away, while bank card payments can take days to process.
However, Yakov and Partners said that the CBDC's "benefits" for customers "are less clear-cut."
People in Russia won't be able to earn interest on their CBDC tokens, so many people will be hesitant to use the coin.
Another blow could come from offers of cash back. The professionals thought that "banks will stop" giving cashback "if their income falls."
Additionally, Yakov and Partners said that "the digital ruble has no obvious advantages in terms of ease of everyday use."
A rollout is also not likely to change prices; instead, it would only increase "profits for retailers."
Banks to Put Up a Defense?
This company also said that Russian banks "can choose from two options" to protect their own interests.
The first would be "defensive," and banks might try to push the digital RUB out of the way. In order to do this, they might offer better cashback deals or higher interest rates.
One more aggressive choice would be for banks to actively promote "products that use the digital ruble and try to make money from them."
That being said, Yakov and Partners said that if there is a standoff between the Central Bank and the private banking industry, then no one would win.
"The implementation of the digital ruble will be delayed," instead, and "banks will suffer losses relatively slowly."
As a response to penalties lead by the US and EU, the Central Bank sped up the rollout of CBDC in 2023.
Moscow wants to persuade its trading partners to switch from using the USD for trade to using the digital ruble and other CBDCs instead.
Nabiullina, on the other hand, said that the whole process of introducing and using the digital ruble would probably take five to seven years.
Russian banks are already not sure about the CBDC, even though most of the big players are taking part in tests.