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Weekly Crypto Digest - Week #3
Disclaimer
This is the third weekly digest for cryptos and related financial news. The news this digest covers comes from the investor's point of view and what an investor can expect from the market in the upcoming week. This digest is not an archive of news from the last week but an analysis of news and the outcomes that the news can bring in the coming week. I do not intend to give any investing advice, but I plan to make you a known investor. No chart analysis, no cumbersome patterns or indicators, only words - enough to direct you.
Index
- Bitcoin As Predicted
- Awesome September - Reversal Uptober
- Israel-Iran Conflict
- India's FnO Changes & Positives for Crypto
- How To Trade
1. Bitcoin As Predicted
Source - My first Weekly Digest.
In my first blog of weekly digest, I predicted that BTC would come down at the 57-58k range for a retest before attempting to breach 70k resistance. Considering RSI, market sentiments, and how BTC behaves, it is fairly obvious. We just exited the 55-60k range and expecting a moonshot is a foolish understanding of the crypto market's nature.
The lowest price we hit was 59.8k just near my given range. The market was extremely choppy and fairly unpredictable that's why I also warned the traders to stay away from this sudden optimism in the crypto market.
Where it will go from here?
I expect it to take another dip and touch the 60k mark but if it falls further then expect it to stabilize at the 58k market for this phase. For the coming week, I expect BTC to touch 60k and attempt for 65k. If it reaches 65k by the end of the coming week and holds there then I will be optimistic.
Why I am expecting another dip?
On the day-wise chart, RSI is standing at 41 which tells that there can be a potential dip again. If BTC attains a RSI of 30-35 range on day-wise performance then it will be a sign of upward trend. Also, the longs-shorts volume share is nearly 50-50 which is giving me a mixed signal and not a clear picture. Yet, I will stick to my prediction for this week.
2. Awesome September - Reversal Uptober
Source - Coinglass.com
You were expecting a red September and here we are. Can you see a pattern that makes 2024 unique over other past years? The alternate red-green months. September of 2024 was the best-performing month compared to other years. 7.29% up on price change shows that this year reversed the common notion. Now, from this year I will hear less about Red-September. I get annoyed when I see a bunch of blogs stating that September is the month of blood-bath.
Uptober is still downtober for us. It is too early to paint it badly as we have several weeks to change this narration. But one point that I want to make here is that this time they sold the news. And the buyers of such news affected the market which signifies that people are making their return to the crypto market. Big hands don't like the dead market as well.
3. Israel-Iran Conflict
If this conflict exacerbates further, I believe it is going to impact our pockets as well. Chinese market did perform well in the last week but it owes to changes that happened in the Japanese market. Plus we all know how the government of China drives this narration. The latest news that I heard regarding this conflict is that Israel-USA may hit the oil depot in Iran and this has the potential to increase the cost per barrel from 76$ to 110$. If the cost of living increases that's a sell-signal in crypto and stock markets. The oil depots in Iran have the power to affect the prices in countries like China, India, the Middle East, and other South-East nations.
4. India's FnO Changes & Positives for Crypto
SEBI India has announced several changes for FnO trading which include a reduction in the number of "expires" of derivatives by 2/3rd i.e. 6 weekly contracts, and an increase of minimum trading contract size by 33%. This will impact the low-volume traders which can lead many Indians to turn to cryptocurrency. This is a significant change to FnO trading. In several forums, I can already see the inclination of many small investors towards crypto or gold.
But I fairly agree with the SEBI's stance as well that they needed a way to reduce the speculation, and gambling nature of trading and to make it a more accountable-responsible trading environment. It will impact liquidity in the FnO market and can make retail investors move towards stock, gold, or other forms of derivatives.
5. How To Trade
In trading - a portfolio matters more than speculation, FOMO, missed opportunities, or risk-thrill trades. One must understand that the peace and advantage in maturing a portfolio will always be better than gambling instincts. What's the joy in making a 100$ profit today and losing everything on the very next day or hour? This message is especially targeted to buyers who believe that they can hit a jackpot in the market within a day or week. Just start trying it by holding the right things - coins, stocks whatever you feel too.
Instead of creating new opportunities why not realize the opportunity that is under your feet right at this moment?
That's all for this week. If you read my digest you can see that I am trying my best to bring more dynamics to this digest, improve the content quality, and give you the clearest picture out there. My digests are the sum of my understandings, blog readings, podcasts, YouTube videos, and my analysis of this news with a rational mind.
If you enjoyed reading this, you can appreciate my work by upvoting, reblogging, and making a comment on this blog. I am thankful for your time.
Note:
- The images used in the blog have their source attached to them.
- Other images are made using Freepik-Image.
- Banner Image made using Canva.