Preparing for the Bull Run Euphoria
Not super happy with powering down over 50% of my stake. But what needs to be done needs to be done... It would be crazy not preparing for a classic Q4 bull run euphoria. So far we have always had one and if we don't get it in Q4/Q1, it would be a first. Since it takes 13 weeks to power down, we essentially have to do it now to be able to participate in the madness. Of course there is a possibility that it never comes, but it's the only way to be able to take advantage of potentially crazy market moves.
8 years on Hive
This year I have missed the annual postings of some old timers on here. I suppose one reason is that Hive's price is in the dumpster. At 17 cents, no one can really look back and say "Hive has really been worth my time", if we measure that time in terms of $. Being at ATLs feels surreal when we are entering Q4 now. I have expected that we'd be at $1 at this time of the cycle. But it seems that $1 might be the top for Hive in this cycle (if we are lucky!). Of course price is just one way to look at the time spent here. I have really enjoyed the friendships and communication for the most part on Hive. It really has been a journey with many ups and downs.
2026+ Outlook
What happens after the market tops? Can Hive really crash another 95% after we peak at $1? If so, it would reck the economy since the debt levels of HBD would be unsustainable and HBD would crash. Projects would stop and users would go away. It would be truly an awful thing to witness. I know that this can happen since I have just seen it with Koinos. The chain has essentially died over a painful 5 years and it's quite something seeing all of the community and value getting drained over a long period.
But I guess we could argue that price can't really crash that hard if there isn't a massive buying rally before it. Could cryptos actually become more stable after this cycle? I somehow doubt it. I have been arguing for a cycle shift instead. If so, ALTs could peak in Q3/4 of 2026 taking everyone off guard. It somehow would fit the market psychology if we get something unexpected again.
Conclusion
I really wanted to keep the majority of my stake, but that only makes sense if Hive is much higher valued. We could then use Hive as a passive income without losing the majority of our stake. I guess if whales start to sell into a rising market and plan to buy back lower it could be beneficial for the ecosystem. That's at least something Ii intend to do as long as Hive continues to thrive (which it does imo as can be seen from the projects and users' activity). I also wonder if we get some South Korean pumps again. Just last year we had billions(!) of Hive traded in a single day. If we see volume spiking again I guess it will be a clear signal to prepare to sell the top. On the other hand, I don't think I will have the guts to sell Hive below $1, so maybe I'll get to keep my stake after all...
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