Portfolio down, sales up?
If you are like me - stuck with a 95%+ portfolio loss overall, despite holding a "diverse" portfolio - then congratulations, you have completed the first phase of the max pain trade. So why not sell now? Well, if you haven't, then you probably know about the second phase of the max pain trade: a recovering portfolio that you have sold off.
Yes, I am actually still trying to avoid the potential pain that might come from seeing my sold off portfolio recover. At this point I definitely feel I only have a bit of delusional hope left, but again, could you imagine seeing a recovery and having actually sold? I reckon that pain may be more painful than selling a -99% portfolio. But then again, there is probably some peace that comes from not having to worry about anything related to market developments again. At times I came close to executing such a trade, but at least on Hive we have a 13 week power down that prevents such bold action.
The Typical R.I.P. Chart
While this chart is showing SPS, the main price movement has been very consistent across the board and the insights here can be more or less extended to many ALT coins. What we have here is a ~5 year bear market in which a coin or token generally has sold off by 90-99%. Some coins do not even really show a consolidation phase (which has yet to be confirmed) and have just continued downward. In any case, it looks bleak, and it is often in these times when we lose patience and do "something stupid".
Of course the only really stupid thing everyone has done holding such a coin or portfolio is not having have sold. But here we are. So I guess they question is if price action could actually turn positive again for the foreseeable future. It doesn't seem outrageous to imagine the steep slopes of death reverse somewhat and go into a "U shaped recovery".
I have argued that we might be in for a ~3 year long ALT rally that could peak in late 2028. With the 4 year halving event also set in 2028, a delayed peak is something we have often seen for the crypto cycle. But even if we should see some sort of long term reversal and recovery, there is no doubt that the type of recovery will heavily depend on the project itself. I wonder how many will actually get a new ATH or "only" do a 10x and still be under water.
Conclusion
If you are still riding along, you have probably had a bad time. there is no sugar coating it. But selling now could be the ultimate mistake - and I am not ready to do it. Besides, the absolute value of the majority of portfolios is probably quite low to begin with.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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