Altseason has been elusive so far
The BTC.D chart in particular hasn't really made any sense recently when seen through the 4 year cycle. Last year I made a post about this and expected for BTC.D to start dropping at any moment, but instead, dominance climbed higher until summer of 2025. Here is the chart from back then:
If the 4 year cycle has any merit, dominance should have started to fall in late 2024. While this pattern is very evident in the chart (the cycle is marked with the blue arrows), we didn't see the same pattern play out. Instead, dominance has only started to fall only a couple of months ago. It doesn't seem very realistic to assume that we would only get a short spike to the bottom and then immediately after that a prolonged BTC season again. Altseason has so far always lasted at least a year.
Here is an updated chart (notice how dominance climbed to the trend line connecting the previous peaks which is also shown in the first chart).
When we extend the target to late 2026 everything is starting to fall in line. We have a climb of dominance that lasts around 3 years and a fall and stagnation for around 1.5 - 2 years. The current pattern that shows the fall of BTC.D so far, fits very well with the observed movement in 2021. If so, we could expect a continuation of a steep decline in the coming weeks accumulating in around January/February of 2026 at around 42-44%.
If this cycle isn't even more an outlier, we could probably expect a scenario like this: a fall back to around 42% (where there is strong support) and several retests of this area for at least a half a year until dominance breaks out to the top again (probably in late 2026 or early 2027).
Conclusion
This cycle has already proven to be quite different. Should an actual Alt rally still transpire, it may very well happen in 2026. Yesterday we got a first real feel for it with some Alts rallying over 100%. In a sense, this wouldn't seem surprising, since an Alt rally can't really happen when everything is confident it will happen. Perhaps we have needed this uncertainty before things can move along again.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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