Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
So once again the entire crypto market is in panic mode
Has the bear market already begun?
Will we see 30k?
And a further correction to 20k?
Let's pause for a moment and look at the big picture:
From this we can see that the length of the cycles are getting longer. There were about 364 days in the "first" one, about 511 in the second and continuing this logic we can expect the next cycle to last between about 644 and 854 days. This means that the expected bull cycle top is not going to happen very likely for another ~140 days (the average).
It also means that bitcoin doesn't "have time" for a correction as a correction to 30k would cancel this time window. If you have been following my TAs, then you will remember that I argued with this same logic about a half a year ago. But then it was the opposite: an early run up was not likely as there was "too much time" left.
In the chart you can see that all of the peaks can be fitted with three trend lines. I believe this is also possible for the current cycle. The support trend line on the right has to, however, still be established. It also would suggest that a further correction is unlikely. Obviously this is a weaker argument, but there are better ones still.
One indicator that seems to be good for judging a cycle top is the RSI. We can see that it has so far always double peaked in the high 90s. So far we have only had one peak in the low 90s. So one could argue that a second one should still transpire. If we get upward movement the last line of the RSI would ascend quite rapidly and a double peak would fit quite well into this chart.
If we look at a close up we can see that 40k is a crucial support level. For all of the last year this has been a "battle ground" for BTC. If it fails we would very likely head back down to 30k. It could look something like the green path. But this would be awkward as this would mean that the bull cycle top probably already occurred at ~69k. This would also be the first time that there wasn't really a bull run with the ATH being only about 3.5x from the last ATH.
However, if it holds, price should quite rapidly reach for 100k+. 100k itself would be a big resistance. But if we reach it, prices would very likely reach much higher as this would be the last phase of the bull cycle where prices just continue to rise. I would suggest that it would not go higher than the middle of the three blue trend lines we identified for all of the peaks. From the time window we established, this would mean about a ~200k top. So nothing crazy with some predictions calling for 500k or 1 million BTC.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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