Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Our bullish scenario from almost a month ago seems to have been confirmed
At the time I was arguing for 35k in the near term. I am correcting that outlook now upwards to about 40k (and after that I am expecting a correction to about 25k again!). Let me show you my line of reasoning in this post.
If you have been following my posts you know that I am using a simple technique for technical analysis called pattern recognition or fractal analysis. It's something that works pretty well and I am pretty confident currently at using and applying it to the market. So far so good, but one should of course always have in mind that no technique is perfect.
The main idea for this outlook comes from an insight in the post mentioned above: we can see that the bull phase starting in 2015 was marked by an upward pointing wave pattern. This wave moved in a channel until it broke out of it in 2017. Here we are applying the same idea to the the current market, giving us a wider and larger wave residing in a similar upward pointing channel:
I have since then fine tuned the analysis and the graph I have come up with looks something like this:
Ignore the blue trend lines here. What matters are the orange ones. This should be the channel in which BTC should trade in over the next few months. Just like before (in the cycle) upward price movement should be rejected once it touches the (thicker) orange line at the top.
If we compare it to the run in 2019 we see similar price increases of about 300%. I would strongly use caution when staying in the market at these price levels. A correction is almost guaranteed.
The end of this "mini" bull run should be in Spring of 2021. From then on you can see a fairly long correction. Note however that this can occur much faster: If it happens fast it will be much stronger than if it happens over a prolonged period of time. All in all I expect a correction to about 24-26k (this is also where we have the large CME gap). The bottom orange line should this time hold the price upward (this is also evident in 2016).
So the TL;DR is: 40k in the next weeks; after that a fairly long time (months) of correction to about 25k. After that we will reach for 60k and beyond!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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