Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Another month has past since my last update on BTC!
Previously I laid down 2 scenarios for BTC a bullish one as well as a bearish one in which I favored the former one. Since then the market has still not definitively decided for either one, but with the important weekly and monthly closes now holding at critical support levels it seems to me that we are on track to a bigger upwards push.
One important trend line which has an impressive 10 years of support, is seen in the following chart:
Now one month later, we can see October closing in green:
This is, while still preliminary, a fantastic confirmation of this big macro support.
Another important clue is the way that previous bull markets came to a close which I highlighted in the last post:
We can see that the bear market followed this "S" line: it dipped under the trend line then went over it and then retested it. So far price has always bounced off of it and transitioned into a bull market.
Yet another pattern which would suggest an end to the bear market is seen in how the bottom formed: we went under the orange trend line (which were the previous lows), retested it and then went lower again, but did not reach lower lows. Just last week this was tested when price went to the low 18ks, but we bounced off of it which means that this pattern is so far in tact.
All of this suggests that the bear market ended in June
It was outrageous to claim back then that the bear market could have already ended when we just had the worst performing months in Bitcoins history. But in June I made exactly that statement:
But no, I am really pondering: Has the Bear Market just ended with Bitcoin dropping sub 23k, rather than started?
While price ultimately fell to the 17ks, the statement still aged quite well considering that the patterns we saw since then are suggesting exactly that. In my opinion the chances of being on track to new highs is higher than making new lows (sub 17ks).
In the next post I will try to predict where prices could be heading in the following months, so stay updated :)
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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