Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
ETH is closely following the same movement that we saw in 2017
After the peak in June, there was a sharp decline and another recovery that, however, stayed below the first peak. The whole second upward movement was based on one trend line that determined its peak. It's visible in the first chart.
Price first stayed above it, then went under it and then it became a resistance. We are now seeing the same movement once more:
The movement is also closely following the fibonacci retracement ratios: It recovered to 0.6 and is now seeing resistance; it should correct to between the 0.3 and 0.5 ratio which would equate to a price of about 2.7-2.9k or a correction of about 15%. After that price could potentially reach new highs again, but the trend line should once again be a resistance. Using the fib ratios, this would give us a price of about 4k. It should definitely stay below the previous ATH. If so, I would expect a strong correction down to the long trend line and a price of about 2.2-2.5k. As you can see from the first chart, price should then follow a side ways movement for several months.
The ETH/BTC chart gives us an interesting insight:
From 2017 onward, there is a trend line which has been important for this ratio. I divided it into green and red and as you can see ETH/BTC first stayed above this trend line until June of 2019. This second segment lasted until June of 2021 (June seems to be an important month for ETH). Now we are in the third segment, which is once more above this divide. We should stay above it for at least 6 months and perhaps longer. I think the possible run up to 4k could mean that the ratio would increase to about 0.1. I don't think it will go above this and instead could be followed by a correction to the main trend line.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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