Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Just Yesterday we witnessed one of the more spectacular Hive pumps
We almost went back to $1 just to completely crash again. If you are still surprised by these big movements then you should start studying Hive's fractal. We already went back to 60 cents again believe it or not, which is just in line with our prediction from last post:
As the ultimate bottom we could see about 50 cents before moving up again. So being already at 60 is a bit of a harsher correction than I thought we'd see. So let's dive into a more detailed analysis!
If we look at at the pump&dumps you should see a pattern:
Since in the most recent pump we just shot off to the moon with no stops we are coming crashing down just as fast. Notice that in the first pump price went up fast but had some stops in between. For this reason we also went a bit slower on the downside (although it was still fast).
One method I like to apply for identifying potential stops is the fib channel. We can draw it from the bottom all the way to the top and identify similar movements. This might first look confusing, but just follow the color pattern.
The first fractal had stops between the red and yellow area and then went up to the green again. Ultimately it went back to the red and gray area. Now we apply this to our current fractal.
We could end up with something like this. Just keep in mind that this is a very rough path. There can be large divergences from this, but the point is that the main stops (yellow/red and red/gray) should be the same.
In other words, be prepared to again test the 70 cent range and to then dump one last time to about 50 cents!
Quick revision for last post
$5-$8 seems very optimistic over the next six months! It does seem realistic around the next bull market top, though.
For me this seemed a bit too steep as well actually, but this is what the charts indicated to me. However, upon further studying the charts I think I have a better idea.
I want to revise this chart of last post:
to this chart which I think should fit the macro markets much better as I still think that the bear market will last until the end of this year.
In other words, I would expect a high of about $1.6 for this year in the next weeks/months which would then be followed by another correction to about 50-60 cents. For 2023 which should be the start of the next bull cycle I would be expecting now a high of about $8-$10.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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