"The Crash" puts Crypto in an awkward situation
Ever since the crash of last week where we saw top 10 coins crash 60-70% in hours, crypto is in an awkward spot. For the first time I am asking myself if crypto has any legitimacy if MMs and whales can dump price this much so fast. The Others chart is back to where it was 4 years ago - still no growth in the ALT market in so many years. The wick it has created has put a very ugly stain in the charts that we can't erase and seems to mock TA as a whole.
Looking at Hive's chart is incredibly strange. There is this line that doesn't make sense and values Hive briefly at 3 cents... Like where do we go from here? Is this the start of a new chapter? Is it the end? All supports are broken and it almost looks like we are heading slowly towards zero.
The good news is that there is some sort of support at 14 cents. 1-2 years ago (I am too lazy to look it up) I actually once argued for this support as it connects the lows in the weekly chart in 2020 to form this blue line. Never have I imagined that it would actually come to this.
You can see that I marked in letters the similarities of the bigger and smaller fractal in recent years. We were just about to go into "E" before the crash. To me this signals that the fractal has been completed (in the most terrible way). We could be shifting in a new fractal, but... and here is the caveat it could be even smaller than the previous ones.
If so, we could see a top at around 30-40 cents before heading once more back lower. That would coincide with the speculated bear market for 2026 and beyond. But where would this leave us? Hive could go well below 10 cents, perhaps even closer to 1 cents! This would put the whole chain in jeopardy - HBD debt levels could not be sustained... it would be a disaster.
Again, I don't really know what to make of this yet. Previously it looked like we would see $1-1.3 in the coming months (almost guaranteed...). A rally towards the red resistance seems reasonable, but a breakout to higher grounds? I am not so sure anymore...
Conclusion
We are in the worst possible situation for Q4. No sugar coating possible. To me this is suggesting that we will be seeing a shift in market dynamics over the coming years. It's too soon to know where it could be heading, but I have a feeling we will get a surprise as the market always remains unpredictable in the long run. Perhaps a silver lining is that Hive has often surprised us in the darkest moments (in a positive way)...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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