Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
It's been quite some time since the last KOIN update
Back in spring the KOINOS team was about to launch their V3 testnet which would be the final finalization of the main framework. As such, the testnet=mainnet. Since then the team has constantly worked on polishing and stress testing the testnet and seems now to be in a position to actually launch the mainnet in a month or two! This is of course big news, as all holders of the ERC-20 KOIN token will get an equivalent amount airdropped to their KOIN wallets (if you still want to buy some head over to UNISWAP where you can buy KOIN for ETH). And with that KOIN will go live! There is of course still a lot of hard work necessary of which one of them will be to get a listing on a CEX. But the team and the community should make this a reality.
So what about KOIN from a TA persepctive?
My last update on this is somewhat mixed in its predictive power. I expected a strong support at around 50 cents which turned out to be rather weak. See here again:
In fact that whole lower support from the trend line at the bottom turned out to be faulty. Unfortunately the website where I used to do my TA has for whatever reason cut the data, so I have to work with the new chart. However, I filled in the trend lines and past data as best as I could.
Not exactly amazing but this is the best chart I could find (if you know a better source let me know!)
So waht actually happened was a linear and then abrupt decline down to 14 cents! To be honest, I never expected for KOIN to go down that low again. With that we had a 90%+ correction from its ATH. This is basically capitulation levels - we know from many coins/tokens that 90% signals a completed correction. But we have more cues. We can draw a vertical line from the highs from April/May of 2021 for which there is more confirmation in November and connect it to the current lows of July.
This is more obvious in another chart I found which has weeklyish candles:
In fact it is a complete obvious support. Something which I did not see in the first chart. But I'll redraw it because it is also what happened in the first and second subwave which strengthens the pattern mas a whole. The chart looks terrible but I just wanted to post it here for completeness.
So where does this leave us?
KOIN is about to launch its mainnet; probably in August or September (at the latest October).
I still think the patterns observed an highlighted in my last post are correct. It's just that the the way these patterns/fractals play out exactly is hard to predict. As such, we should see a slow upward trend towards the launch window and then a brief dip. On the days of the release or perhaps with a CEX listing I would expect price to finally shoot upwards just like in the previous subwaves.
We have a new middle trend line which will act as a price ceiling and would be at around $5 in fall. While I am not sure if it will play out exactly as in the chart (in fact it won't), the basic shape of this movement should still hold true. In other words, there will very likely be a breakout bringing us in the $ range in the next months.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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