Inconsistent consistency
The OTHERS/BTCUSD chart has had a very consistent pattern. Until 2022 we saw two up and down phases that lasted almost equally long. The down phases were around 460 days long and the up phases around 870 days. But in 2022 the cycle shifted towards a much longer downward phase. Currently it is 1260 days long (if we don't see a lower low - and no, I didn't take the ugly flash crash wick as the low). This is around 2.5 times longer than previously. I guess the obvious question relates to what this could entail for the upcoming upward phase (should it ever transpire). In my opinion this would only be confirmed if we would see the red resistance trend line being broken.
The heretical take on this would be to assume that the upward phase could be proportionally as long as the previous downward phase. Why heretical? Because it breaks the so far observed 4 year cycle. But this would essentially assume an extremely long upward phase: around 6.5 years long... That would bring us to around 2032... yeah, that seems very extreme.
We can see that the pattern broke in 2023 when the brief upward momentum failed to take price sustainably higher and instead broke down to lower lows.
Is there a middle ground?
The middle ground is a bit awkward, since it would either have to be a peak in 2026 or in 2027. 2026 would still somewhat rhyme with the previous cycles, but if we assume that the upward phase is around equally long as before that puts us in 2027. But why should the upward phase be as long as previously when the downward phase hasn't followed the "rules"?
I guess we can assume 3 basic scenarios;
- A: a peak in 2026 with a very strong impulse wave, taking us either to a peak at the red resistance trend line or a peak at around previous ATH.
- B: a peak in 2027 with an equally higher and lower target
- C: a much more prolonged upward phase, essentially lasting for a few more years
The scenarios are marked with the arrows here:
Conclusion
Obviously this is guess work and to state otherwise wouldn't be very honest. The only thing for certain is that the cycle has shifted. It is completely obvious that we won't get a peak at the end of 2025 and Q4 won't be the classic end of the cycle. We don't know when the upward phase will be confirmed and how long it will last. But if it does last at least 1-2 years, this might be a very good entry point. The even bigger outlier would be an extremely long upward phase lasting around 5-6 years...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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