Good day Hiveians!
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Now that we have more data on where we most likely are in the bull cycle I think we can start making predictions as to where things could top out for Hive
Bitcoin seems to make its move upward finally. When bitcoin makes big moves up altcoins, however, tend to lag behind. However, the mini bear market we are currently in should end for all coins soon when bitcoin confirms this upward movement.
Some days ago I cautioned about Hive's fractal as I could see large potential price movements ahead. In this post I want to highlight the most probable scenario that I think we could be facing. While it is not too overwhelming (I was expecting Hive to go to 10$ or more), I think based on the current data this scenario seems currently more probable. So let's start.
These are probably the most important trend lines for Hive currently. You can see that there is an angle in which price is expected to move with various support or resistance trend lines in between. I think there is a good chance for Hive to drop one last time before the trend change back upwards. Possibly by up to 20-25% to around 25 cents.
Hive's fractal is clearly outlined in these 1-2-3 movements. The current bigger fractal of the blue 1-2-3 is what I expect how price could move. The previous top at 1$ was the "1" and the current low of about 25-30 cents is the "2". We are still left with a "3". But how high will it go?
Fortunately the Fibonacci retracement gives us a very straightforward answer. All previous sub-fractals marked in the purple ellipses predicted the next top at the 2.6 to 3.6 ratio.
Extrapolating this to the expected "3" would give us a range of about 2-3$
The path could be something like this. It is similar to the first sub-fractal marked in January as it has a rather slow build up to the peak.
This would seem to be the conservative scenario in that it would definitely under perform as opposed to the scenarios that would see Hive at 10$+ for this cycle. However, obviously a more bullish scenario is always possible. In that case the build up to "3" would be a mid stop to e.g. 10$. But for all of this happening, we first need to see bitcoin confirming the next impulse wave up.
In times of the time frame for this playing out, I think that everything is currently leading up to another winter Cycle top. So I would expect the top to be in anytime from November to March.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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