Good day Hiveians!
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It has been tough for SPS hodlers with SPS dropping a stunning 89% from its ATH
But I think at last there may be a trend change coming... However, before we dive into the charts, it is important to know about the airdrop as well which has so far been mainly responsible for the downward price action.
Today is airdrop day 186 of 365, which means that half of the airdrop is already over! This is more psychological I guess, but what this signals of course is that SPS's total supply is not going to continue to increase forever. Splinterlands just recently updated their future road map for SPS in which they reiterate the how the supply of SPS will change continuing with the end of the airdrop:
In total, that's over 53M fewer SPS tokens that will be distributed each month starting in the latter half of 2022, and that rate will continue to decrease by 1% each month going forward as specified in the SPS token whitepaper.
This means that SPS's supply while still fairly large (close to 1 billion) will become more deflationary. Personally, I think that the team "printed" a little too much SPS as a whole. But they do seem to have a lot of cool new ideas in store for the tokenomics of splinterlands as stated in the latest town hall.
I also have to correct some of my previous posts in which I believed that SPS total supply was only about 250 million. I didn't know that it would eventually increase to ~1 billion!... So that's my bad, and this definitely would explain why the awaited "break out" for SPS hasn't happened yet.
TA
Let's have a look at the last chart for SPS. The large impulse wave hasn't happened obviously. But my point is that it hasn't happened yet. My outlook for SPS remains still the same. Everything seems ready to take off... especially after a correction of almost 90%. I have never really seen a coin that falls lower than that in a bull market. The chance for significant gains is far greater than continued losses (at least short to mid term).
This is an updated chart. The downward trend line is being tested now and there is a really good chance that it will be breached. If so, I would expect prices to go to about 15 cents where it will encounter another resistance. However, if there is a trend change occurring now, prices should continue up to the next resistance at about 17-18 cents.
It could look something like this (again, it is like the former outlook just shifted in time):
There will be quite some resistance in the 30-50 cents range, so I would expect bigger corrections in that area. But all in all, I think this scenario could work out quite well. It's (almost) impossible for the downward trend to continue after such a big correction. So maybe now is finally a good time to pick up some more SPS or just not to sell the coins you have ;)
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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