Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
3 months ago we had a look at BTC.D
I argued that we were in the consolidation phase (yellow box) and heading into the altseason within the end of the year. Here is the chart again:
But 2 days ago we saw the anticipated pre-halving correction and BTC.D went higher. In fact, it made a newer high and this raises the question if dominance will continue to climb or if this was just a blip in the larger sideways movement. This is no small deal imo: we can see the red trend line acting as the resistance, and I believe it will decide the fate for altcoins this cycle. If the ratio pushes above it I am quite convinced that Altseason will be a fud, should it get rejected alts should perform above average. On the other hand, should the ratio rise it could also leave more "room" for the alt season (a drop from ~70% to 40% seems more realistic than from 50% to 20%)...
The most recent push actually broke this trend line, but I think it's too early to call it a sustainable breakout. But it will be decided within 1-2 weeks when we see a confirmation either way. Here is the updated chart:
I had to extend the green box since the ratio made a higher high - it is now around half a year longer. This already offsets the pattern from the last cycle. We can be quite certain that more surprises will follow. The interesting part about this is that I am expecting this cycle to be also a bit shorter with it ending in around fall of 2025 (instead of winter), so this doesn't leave as much room for the consolidation and alt season phases. The cycle could of course also be longer, but I am quite sure that one of the phases will be shorter than what we saw previously.
Overall I think BTC.D is pretty much destined to go lower over the years and decades since BTC just cannot keep up with the innovation of competing projects. This is why I am favoring the rejection scenario. But tbh, it's more of a guess.
Anyway, it's perhaps one of the most important charts atm that isn't getting enough attention.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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