DEC About to PEG?

October should be an exciting month for SPL

Not only are we going to get LAND 1.5 (I don't think they can afford another delay), but also the Rebellion presale. While it is a presale, we know from previous set editions that these have generally sold out very fast. Since they will only be available in DEC (1 pack = 5k or 4k with Vouchers), a lot will be taken off of the market. Just how much? If we assume only 100k packs sold this would around 100k*4k=400M DEC. But that should be a very conservative number since previous sets have sold millions of packs. In any event, we can probably see around 400-800M DEC taken off of the market in the next month from Rebellion alone. If not... we are in trouble. The company will need this revenue to keep the servers running in the near future. But let's worry about that in November.

Since Rebellion will be sold over the course over the next year we can assume much more packs getting sold. Although this will not immediately effect the DEC supply, it is still good to have a bigger sink for this token. DEC will need continuous sinks to get the "flywheel" going (burning SPS for DEC, and in turn raising price for SPS). We have all been waiting for a long time to actually see this in action. And with a bit of "luck" we will see it soon since LAND 1.5 is expected to be an even much bigger sink.

LAND 1.5 will also come in the next weeks and assuming only 2/3 of plots getting utilized that is still 100k plots. We can also assume that players will on average stake around 10k-20k DEC per plot to utilize their cards (with a maximum of 50k per plot possible). These numbers seem very conservative and even so, it would mean that 100k*20k = 2B DEC could get staked on LAND. This would also be a fairly fast development since players are motivated to utilize their plots as fast as possible.

Together with Rebellion this could be a sink for around 2.4-2.8B DEC. That is a lot, but we also still have around 4.6B of DEC supply left. Yet removing around 50% of DEC supply will no doubt lead to a supply shock and raise the price for DEC. The only thing is that these things happen normally well before the event takes place. Why wait for DEC to reach PEG if one can buy it now and make a potential ~30% profit?

We have seen this play out before as well. The chart above show the last 2 times when DEC hit PEG again. It was when we had the RUNI sale as well as the LAND hype in spring. This happened when we had even more DEC on the market and no immediate sinks. But now we have less DEC on the market and imminent sinks. It's clear to me that we will reach PEG probably this month, if not very soon thereafter. If we do not, then either LAND and/or Rebellion has flopped and/or some whales simply flood the market with DEC that was locked up in their wallets.

I think it is safe to say that the whole community wants this to succeed. In fact, Splinterlands itself is dependent on these two roll outs this month to be successful. Let's hope for the best!

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