Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
With his tweet from 2 days ago he sends BTC and the crypto market plunging.
I wasn't aware of this tweet until I read it on a blog post and it explains why the market behaved so "irrational". However, it highlights the problem that one man can affect an entire industry to such a degree. But I guess that is human psychology... So here is the tweet:
In other words, Elon thinks that BTCs non renewable energy consumption is a problem and doesn't want to take part in contributing to climate change. It strikes me as odd that one of the richest men in the world wouldn't do some basic research before buying into something. Didn't he know about this? But then again, I can imagine that at that height one is driven by an entrepreneuristic energy that lets one forget about these "small" things. Too bad that Elon doesn't know about alt coins like Hive... well I mean of course he knows Doge coin, but no one knows if he is actually serious about it...
So how does this change the market?
First, I think that this should be a tremendous push for alts. If Elon sees the limitaitons of BTC, will others too? Why not switch to much more efficient coins like Hive? :)
Second, although the "orange line" has now been tested for a third time, there is an important clue that this down trend might not be sustainable: volume. Look at the chart below. Normally there is a pretty big spike in volume whenever BTC dives for 10-20% or more. But this time there was almost none! This is pretty big in my opinion, as this means that the big guys didn't sell their coins.
Also notice the purple ovals in the price chart: The first one was when Elon announced Tesla's entry into cryptos and the second one is the recent one. The rise and drops are identical, meaning that perhaps the market is again "balanced".
My scenario for BTC to 100-120k is however slightly changed. It is clear now that price won't hug the middle blue line, but rather cling on to the outer most trend line. But I still expect BTC to peak at around 100k in about 6 weeks. The other more bearish scenario is that BTC will continue down this channel, but this would be quite bearish as price could go down to 30 k I think. Let's hope for the best...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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