Q4 is a comin'
Sure, it's great to power up Hive, especially when thinking about the long term future this platform has. But even if you think Hive has a bright future, it might be a good idea to start powering down as history has shown that one can get stuck in the 4 year cycle. Take 2021: selling only a fraction at the top could have gone a long way after the more than 3 years of bearish price action. Or to put it another way, selling part of your stake could be used to buy cheaper Hive in the years to come. Sure, this strategy could be a disaster if Hive should "make it", but so far it has always been the smarter move to sell at the end of the 4 year cycle.
As posted before, I think the mid term outlook for Hive might look like this:
While I am not certain about a higher second peak for 2026, some sort of peak at the end of Q4 or beginning of Q1 is almost certain. The tricky question is how much should one sell at a possible top? If we are greedy the answer is 100% since we can buy it back a lot cheaper. But obviously we don't know how it will play out. Personally, I think I will power down 50% of my stake. Since it takes 13 weeks to do so, it essentially means that I have to start in the coming weeks.
Selling Hive doesn't feel good
In my older charts I still have the target of $20-$25 for Hive :) Yeah, I think that's probably not going to happen anytime soon. We all know that the true valuation for this network is a lot higher than 20 cents. And even at $1 it seems undervalued. The ecosystem is large and active, it's use case is unique in crypto. Perhaps price would be a big higher if we already had the smart contract system in place by vsc - it is a feature that has been missing for too long and the absence of it has probably had its toll.
While I don't like the idea of "losing" half of my stake in the coming months (should price go to $1+ again), I think it would be even worse not selling and seeing Hive at 10-20 cents in 2026-2027 again. In fact, I am certain about this. Should Hive go for a higher peak in 2026 I will still have at least 50% to sell then... Not looking forward to becoming a dolphin of course, but I guess the longer strategy is to buy back cheaper. On the other hand, I totally see this not working out and Hive breaking its ATH and me losing my stake as is usual in crypto. Don't get me wrong, I certainly want to grow my stake in the long term as long as Hive is still active, but for now it would be crazy to not sell at least 30-50% in Q4.
Conclusion
I guess I might have become a crypto realist after all. 100xs seem to be a thing of the past or it requires extreme luck to buy the right coin at the right time. Taking profits is a skill that most lack (me included) and this cycle could be a good place to start honing this skill.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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