Good day Hiveians!
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Hindsight is 20/20
And so we can now look at Hive's past movements and make sense of it. To me it seems clear that we can distinguish 3 distinct phases: Bull, Bear, and Accumulation:
The accumulation phase we are in now has been quite long compared to many other alts. Hive is essentially still sitting at ATLs from the bear market. But holding 25 cents in the bear market was actually a great development. It was 2.5x higher than previous lows.
Outlook
With "time running out" (the bull is expected to end in late 2025), we can now get a very good idea of how Hive could behave in the next 1.5 years or so. In the most favorable scenario I am now seeing only one big push after the accumulation phase bringing us into a relatively short bull phase for Hive. It could look like this:
This is assuming we will have the same relative price action as we had in the last bull run. It could take price from the 30s to around $10. This is lower than what I had previously anticipated (around $20). But it would no doubt be a very explosive price development.
Many things have to happen for this scenario to play out. I don't think we can just expect this to happen magically. Luckily, there are many things lined up for it to happen, with smart contracts being one of them. I really do see this as a real possibility. Perhaps it's just so hard to think in positive (price development) terms after such a long bear and accumulation phase.
One signal would be for price to break to the 50s and a likely reversal back to the high 30s, before price would shoot back up. If so, this would be around late 2024... fingers crossed!
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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