It's been a while
I've been busy with a failing PC on the one hand and life things at the other. Seems like things are stabilizing again, but what a week! I actually witnessed the 60% flash crash of the crypto market as it was happening. It was around midnight and I honestly couldn't believe what I was seeing. First 10-20% crash and I'm like, "okay, it's crypto - whatever". Then it went to the 30%+ and I was surprised seeing such a move this late into the cycle (especially considering how fast it happened). But then after some time I looked again and it was like 60-70% - lol. Like big coins, top 10 coins... I couldn't believe it.
I had the opportunity to buy Hive at 3-4 cents, but that would have meant selling other crypto things as I didn't have "dry powder". It was surreal seeing such a crash. Never before have we seen ALTs dip this hard and the Corona BTC flash crash of like 50% was the closest thing (of course BTC didn't dip nearly as hard this time).
It's becoming comical at this time. We are in Q4 of the cycle. Hive at 3 cents wasn't on my bingo card. Like what even is that 🫠 The charts of all crypto coins have become stained with this ugly wick. It's a non sensical wick and a monument to just how messed up this industry is. At this point I am sure many feel it's just torture - like why do we even keep up with this?
Touching Grass
after 4 years of touching grass my hands are green and my pockets empty. If this was "it", it qualifies for a laugh. But then again, how can the market dump 95% for the next years when it hasn't even really pumped? It probably can't unless everyone just gives up - which actually is a possibility at this point.
It's clear to me that Q4 of 2025 can't be the market euphoria everyone dreamed of. There are only weeks left (perhaps months if we take Q1) and the whole alt market has to go up at least 3-5x from here for everyone to just break even it seems. While that doesn't seem impossible, it's something that we have been saying for years and it hasn't really realized. Every rally has been short lived and has been sold all the way to the bottom of the start of the rally again.
Outlook
I have been saying this for the last months: it's becoming very reasonable to assume that the market is shifting overall. To what extent I am not sure of course, but it could be a lengthening (peak(s) in 2026) or even a shift to a less volatile market environment overall. The first scenario is something we almost have to expect, since it would again catch the majority off guard (with a market peak in early October being equally frustrating). After all, the market just doesn't give out a free lunch: if everyone is expecting Q4 to be a blow off top, chances are it won't be. But the fact that nobody is expecting a peak in (late) 2026 could be the exact reason for why there might be one (or the start of the bear in early Q4...).
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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