Seems like we may not be able to avoid it
In my last post about BTC, I argued we could see a very good upcoming year. I haven't really entertained a big bear scenario since that would spell doom for Alts. I mean, where would that leave the Alt market when almost all coins are already at All Time Lows? But I also recognize that this clearly is a bias on my side and the market doesn't care about my feelings. In a way, it would actually be interesting to see what happens should the markets tank for some time. I am assuming that
- many projects would fail if the downturn is anything like we have seen in the past bear markets
- there could be a historic buying/hodling opportunity for projects that survive it
But there are also two caveats for them: Without a massive Alt season in 2025, is it really reasonable to assume we will see a 95% correction in the coming years? Although this is limited to Alts, since BTC had a somewhat reasonable rally. The other point is that it will be a challenge to know which projects will fair well. I assume this actually takes a very deep look at the projects to see what they have been doing previously and how well they are equipped to deal with upcoming hardships. E.g., looking at Hive would require knowledge about the Debt level and how HBD could crash because of it (and also knowledge that HF28 actually reduced that risk).
TA for BTC & Hive
Let's look at two relevant projects (we are all obviously exposed to Hive). These would be scenarios following previous declines. One would be almost identical to previous corrections (red) while the other would be a less severe turn out (blue).
A -77% correction would place BTC almost exactly at $30k. It would peak at around Q4 of 2026 before reversing course. A more mid sized correction of around -50% would take price to around $60k at the same time frame. This scenario imo looks more probable since we didn't get the normal blow off top for BTC. It therefore seems likely that the correction wouldn't be too severe and if so, price now at around $87k would already be half way there. In other words, the correction would already be almost over.
For Hive the picture is more difficult to paint. Would we see another 95% correction? In fact, one could argue that the bear never ended for Hive (and other Alts as well). It has essentially been one painful move down for 4 years with a short relief rally (?) in 2024. If so, then we don't really have a reference for a previous downtrend and price is now down over 97%.
Previously, I have argued that we have so far always seen a "U-shaped recovery" after a price crash as we have seen in recent months. There is some horizontal support in the 9-10 cents area - so the question is: has Hive bottomed? If not, there is no support. A 95% correction from the relief rally would take price to around 3 cents. This price would seriously test the network and seems to be a breaking point. Will witnesses continue to run their nodes? Will HBD collapse?
Price is already down 85% from the former peak and it seems too depressing to think Hive could actually drop down into the low cent area. But that is what I would call the max bear scenario. To be blunt, I never expected Hive to actually revisit 10 cents, but here we are. So I am open to this bear scenario - if so, Hive like all other Alts will become a conviction game: do you actually belive in the tech, the community, the promise? If it survives, buying or hodling should in principal be very rewarding.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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