Too Soon To Say
...But it certainly is looking quite interesting. If 3.3 really was the turning point for the crypto market as past blood moons have indicated, we could be in for almost 3 years of a bullish market phase. Not that it will always be rosy, but the constant bleeding, especially for Alts, should stop.
We can only definitively be confident in such a market turn around in the months to come, but since 3.3 BTC and the ALT market has made a very compelling come back. This comes amidst extreme global uncertainty due to the Iran war and I honestly would have never thought that crypto would rally in times like these.
Some months ago I anticipated a drop of around 55% for this bear market. The drop we saw came much faster than expected and very close to that number. Again, while it is too soon, to call this the bottom of the bear, it is clear that we are at the very least a relief rally that could take price back to the top of the channel at around 80k.
The last time BTC bottomed, it took around 2 months to consolidate before price exploded back upward. This happened after a 74% correction. However, this correction took a lot longer.
It would therefore be surprising to see BTC actually bottom so soon in February/March. If we get another 2 months of consolidation, upward momentum could start at around April. However, from the red box you can see that BTC should still correct until fall of 2026. Although I wouldn't expect future corrections to be too deep anymore as we probably already saw the biggest ones take place.
The big question is if BTC will actually break out sooner than past cycles. The only reason why I give this a slight chance is the pattern we saw from the blood moons. This suggests that we won't see any lower lows any time soon. Yet the BTC cycle clearly points to the end of a bear market in fall of 2026. What will it be?
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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