📊 Crypto Market Update 📊
There's been a ton of volatility over the past few days due to a few reasons below (I also talked about this in my recent livestream). We also have some big upcoming events and rumors floating around:
Reason for the drop
- A Bitcoin whale sold 24,000 BTC worth over $2.7 billion, causing yesterday’s -$4,000 crash in minutes. They still hold 152,874 BTC worth more than $17 billion (https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1959740701182210466). This will undoubtably cause a lot of negative pressure over the next few days (which is exactly what we're seeing now). One thing to note is that whale invested that capital into ETH, which they subsequently staked on Hyperliquid. This is further proof that whales and institutions are flowing out of BTC and into ETH.
- We also had near 1B in liquidations which should mark a bottom within 1-3 days so keep an eye on major support levels on the daily/weekly timeframes when the indicators reset.
Jackson Hole Meeting
- At the recent Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming, Jerome Powell nearly confirmed rate cuts in September due to a "weaker labor market" and announced he was "flexible" on policy. This is huge. The last time the Fed was flexible on policy was during COVID whenever we had a massive injection of stimulus. i.e The money printer will turn on. I'm expecting some bullishness the first week of September as people will start to front-run the rate cuts.
ETF Flows
Last Friday BTC had -23mil of outflows while ETH had 337M of inflows. This further solidifies the institutional interest of ETH over BTC. I'll be very interested to see this week's ETF flows and if we continue the pattern.
BTC - https://farside.co.uk/btc/
ETH - https://farside.co.uk/eth/
Upcoming Events
- Aug 28th Jobless Claims
- Aug 28th PCE Index and Consumer Sentiment
- Sep 17th FOMC Meeting
Summary ✍️
The market is extremely volatile right now and it's imperative you wait until the RSI/StochRSI indicators reset on the daily/weekly timeframes before you even think about buying again. Only bet at major support levels on the daily.weekly timeframes when your indicators are also in confluence (near oversold levels) and sentiment/liquidation levels align. I'm expecting a choppy August then bullishness for the first week of September as people front-run the rate cuts. There's also data of a few treasury companies looking to bid 500m-2.5b worth of SOL in the beginning of September which should be a nice catalyst for higher once we find a solid floor. Remember to always manage your risk accordingly and never bet more than you can afford to lose. The market will test your patience and resolve, and it's up to you to stay disciplined and only bet when the R/R is on your side. Just like everything else, this too, shall pass 🤝
