Quite a while has passed since my last mental masturbation about Bitcoin, I think it's time to make a short post about it.
Oh, how I like to look to the past to strengthen my vision, although I must admit that all the analogies that worked years ago with BTC are almost failing miserably this time.
However, what I see interesting lately in the BTC charts and in particular in the weekly timeframe is the ability of the 200 Weekly EMA (in yellow on the chart) to "hold" the fall of BITCOIN during its periods of "recession", which can give us an idea of what its possible bottom could be in this Bear Market, if we are in it, of course...
And although my sentimental conscience tells me that cannot be even possible that we are in the Bear Market, the rational part of my brain tells me the opposite...
Right now I don't know on which side of my "ego" I can trust but the little trading volume that we have makes me think that we don't have many sellers out there either if we are in Bear Market... It's a peculiar case, indeed.
Ok, ok, analyzing the situation a bit and looking back three cycles, the previous cycles lasted from the bottom to the top no less than 756 days, 1064 days in the previous one (from approx. $150 bottom to almost $20,000 of the top). The pure Bear Market periods of both lasted between 406 days the last but one and 357 days the last one.
In the current cycle, from the initial bottom to the final top, for the moment, 1064 days have also passed and, if we consider that the TOP was the last ATH, that means that from then on we have only had 175 days of Bear Market with which, is it possible that we still have a similar period to start growing again?
In short:
- the bullish cycle has lengthened in duration but not in scope upwards, for the moment...
- If we are in a bearish cycle and looking back, we would still be halfway through its foreseeable duration, which puts us in a scenario of stagnation that may last a few more months.
- The 200 Weekly EMA seems to have been a good reference for BOTTOM, according to this, the bottom of this cycle should be around $29,000
- Trading volume has a profile never seen before for similar cycles, there doesn't seem to be much interest in selling hard while buyers remain cautious.
Well, up to here what I see in my particular crystal ball... as always, this is not financial advice and blah, blah, blah...
*Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently. Neither this post nor myself is responsible for any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.