Crypto Analysis #5
Hello there, 
Disclaimer: This post is not a trading mantra or get rich quick method, it is made only for educational purpose. I truely want to help others who want to learn Forex and Crypto trading and investing. Trading in the financial markerts involvs a lots of risk. I don't sell signal and don't recommend anybody to do signal trade. Trading in the financial markets is a get rich slow and consistent process. It demands patience & long-term projection and hard work. So be aware of social media scammers.
Fundamentally I am bullish on BTC and a slight bearish on USDT, though USD is in uptrend but it's likely to have a pullbakc move, so there are some room to take it as short term weak. So, the overall fundamental bias for the pair BTCUSDT is bullish
Let's now dig in the technical chart of the pair BTCUSDT - price action with multiple timeframe perspective.
Daily Chart
In D1 timeframe, the BTCUSDT price is supported by a beautiful uptrendline. And this uptrendline is very significant as the price has reacted very effectively whenever it has tested the line. A big move has been happened when the price has come this line. So in the big timeframe, this thing is to be considered very carefully. Currently the price is just in the adjacent the uptrendline, so the buyers should take action here.
BTCUSDT, D1, the price is supported by a beautiful uptrendline
Image source: tradingview, prepared by me
If you zoom out the daily chart a bit, you will find that this line has some significant confluences in past, as it has been tested since July, 2021. So the big support line is here. Those who look for investing or position trading in Bitcoin, I think this is a good level. And the price could go 50k to 60k level from here as it has done so before.
BTCUSDT, D1, the uptrendline has some past confluences - the significance
Image source: tradingview, prepared by me
But if the price breaks the uptredline to the downside, then this setup is Invalid
Four Hourly Chart
In H4 timeframe, the game looks interesting here. The price is in a major support zone and showing rejection to the downside which is great indication of that the price could go up in the shown direction. And if you see, this support zone is aligned with the uptrend line of the D1 timeframe which makes this level more significant.
BTCUSDT, H4, the price is in a support zone
Image source: tradingview, prepared by me
If you are swing trader, then this level could be considered as a buy entry zone. The entry level should be at around 39580.00 while the stop loss level should be at around 38498.00. And you can consider your target profit level at various price level like the 42k, 45k, 47k zone.
As I am a swing trader, so this is how I am going to consider a long position in here and will be trailing my stop loss if the price goes in my favor while the target profit will be open for me. The reason behind trailing stop loss is that I target to catch big trending move and I am pretty happy with that, though I can't often catch those moves, but I can, it really makes my portfolio better.
BTCUSDT, H4, entry, stop loss, target profit for swing trader
Image source: tradingview, prepared by me
But if the price breaks the support zone downside, then this setup is Invalid
Now let's talk about the short term approach to the pair BTCUSDT
One Hourly Chart
The support zone of H4 timeframe can be investigated in detail by the the chart of the H1 timeframe. The price has been skyrocketed for short term when it has tested the support zone last time. The Bitcoin has got some buyers' pressure there. The sellers has tried hard to push the market down, but the buyers has won the battle and as a result, the price has gone up to the 43k level. From there price has come to this support zone and showing rejection which means, the price is likely to go up at any moment. So the Intraday traders could percieve this zone for a buy opportunity.
BTCUSDT, H1, the price is showing rejection in the support zone as it has done so before
Image source: tradingview, prepared by me
M30 Chart
The price is in a consolidation zone in the M30 timeframe. And note that the consolidation is in the adjacent area of the Support zone of H4 and of the uptrendline of D1 which often indicates the reversal market structure. That means the sellers are losing control and the buyers step into the market to dominate. Now if we see a power move upside, we will take that as an indication that the buyers are finally in the domination. And as a result, the stop loss of the sellers will be hit and they will become buyers automatically - basically this is the breakout-pullback strategy. Here you can know about A complete guide of the Breakout-Pulback strategy for Trading which I have discussed in details. Give it a read.
One more thing, when this breakout is happened, use fibonacci retracements tool to take a gauge of the pullback move.
BTCUSDT, M30, the price is in a consolidation period in the support and uptrendline of the higher timeframe
Image source: tradingview, prepared by me
Now that we know the buy entry level at the broken minor support of M30. Let's talk about the exit levels.
Well, the exact entry is at around 39770.00 level while the stop loss is at around 39480.00 level and the target profit is at around 40739.00 level or one can be trailing his/her stop loss for catching big move. One can expect a big rally to the upside as this level is a significat area for buyers both short and long term.
BTCUSDT, M30, entry, stop loss, target profit
Image source: tradingview, prepared by me
But if the price don't make a power move or big move to the upside and breaks the H4 & H1 support zone to the downside, then this setup is Invalid
Well, this wraps up for today. Next I wil come up with another trading ideas, stay tunned.
Feel free to comment what you feel about this pair and about your current setup.
And I wil really be grateful if yo show some supports by upvoting.
Thanks if you make it to the end.
Hope it helps
Happy Trade😊
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