Everywhere I turn around, i see stories like these for the past few weeks now, and ICE raids are on the rise. Its a sensitive topic to many and might not be fit for many people's moral compass, and I myself would not invest in it, but lets talk finance about the situation.
10 Tren de Aragua gangbangers among first group of migrant criminals sent to Guantanamo Bay
Dramatic moment chained migrants are marched into terror hellhole **Guantanamo Bay **after Trump’s crackdown - The arrival to hell.
Abuse claims are rife in California detention centers. Now the facilities are poised to expand!
I compared the performance of stocks related to prison industry to see how that are doing on this once round, now flattened earth.
CoreCivic Inc. (CXW): Formerly the Corrections Corporation of America (CCA), is a company that owns and manages private prisons and detention centers and operates others on a concession basis.
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO): A publicly traded C corporation that invests in private prisons and mental health facilities in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
Here is the Significant Stock Price Increases in over a decade for these two stocks:
| Date | Company | Percentage Change | Event Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2016 | CoreCivic (CXW) | +43% | Following the 2016 U.S. presidential election, private prison stocks surged due to expectations of stricter immigration enforcement under the incoming administration. CoreCivic's stock rose by 43% in a single day. |
| Nov 2016 | GEO Group (GEO) | +21% | Similarly, GEO Group's stock increased by 21% after the 2016 election, driven by anticipated policies favoring private detention facilities. |
| Feb 2017 | CoreCivic (CXW) | +137% | In February 2017, Attorney General Jeff Sessions rescinded an Obama-era directive to phase out private prisons, leading to a 137% increase in CoreCivic's stock by the end of the month. |
| Feb 2017 | GEO Group (GEO) | +98% | GEO Group's stock also benefited from the policy reversal, experiencing a 98% increase by the end of February 2017. |
| Nov 2024 | CoreCivic (CXW) | +61.9% | Following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, CoreCivic's stock surged by 61.9% amid expectations of renewed immigration enforcement policies. |
| Nov 2024 | GEO Group (GEO) | +60.7% | GEO Group's stock similarly rose by 60.7% after the 2024 election, driven by anticipated increases in detention center utilization. |
Here is last one year's chart
The prison stocks see significant growth in political events and political promises followed by victories of Donald Trump, however, lets analyze if they have done well throughout the tenure of Donald Trump's first term.
CoreCivic Inc. (CXW)
| Year | Opening Price | Closing Price | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $14.19 | $25.01 | +76.3% |
| 2017 | $25.01 | $21.59 | -13.7% |
| 2018 | $21.59 | $19.34 | -10.4% |
| 2019 | $19.34 | $17.12 | -11.5% |
| 2020 | $17.12 | $8.35 | -51.2% |
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
| Year | Opening Price | Closing Price | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $23.05 | $31.29 | +35.7% |
| 2017 | $31.29 | $22.90 | -26.8% |
| 2018 | $22.90 | $21.45 | -6.3% |
| 2019 | $21.45 | $15.00 | -30.1% |
| 2020 | $15.00 | $8.00 | -46.7% |
They both showed significant growth following the months of election and then announcement of the President Elect, and remained stable for a while before any other major political event, but saw a sharp decline as the new election was nearing and finally dipping to lows when policies changed. The safest times to invest in these were from November 2016 to November 2017.
Would you invest in these stocks? What are your thoughts?
Please comment, and let me know your thoughts about this post.