Hi HODLers,
I haven't paid attention on the Government Shutdown Headlines lately but started looking at it over the past 36 hours.
During the recent WH Press Conference, I felt like D.Trump was very clear that he is not actively looking to avoid this shutdown and of course the blaming game was part of this conversation.
What I have read so far is that this could be used by the current administration to make massive cuts in Federal workers and spending.
Why is there a Shutdown?
The administration did not engage in any democrat' demands and is looking to chop traditional ACA subsidies which millions of Obamacare enrollees benefit from. Democrats want billions of dollars in healthcare funding to support any short-term spending bill.
Trump has been framing this as Democrats wanting to give free healthcare to illegals and that he will not sign on it.
What is a Government Shutdown?
In a shutdown, government offices continue essential work, but tasks deemed nonessential are put on ice, paychecks stop and many workers are furloughed until Congress passes new funding. The White House controls how agencies operate during a funding lapse, so the effects of a shutdown on the public and the economy vary.
- A government shutdown would cause as many as 900,000 federal workers to be furloughed
- 700,000 federal employees would continue working without pay. Nevertheless, since a 2019 law, workers get back pay when the shutdown ends
What else would be affected?
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other services many Americans rely on would not be impacted.
- TSA and Air Travel could be affected
- SNAP and WIC benefits could be affected
- Environmental and food-safety inspections could be delayed. National parks could be temporarily closed or refuse visitors
The latest news I can see confirm this:
Trump Says Government Shutdown Likely as No Last-Minute Deal Emerges
How am I playing it?
I expect stocks to tank tomorrow following the shutdown, I have a lot of names in mind that I want to buy.
I have also placed some trades on Kalshi. Shares are currently trading at 86cents.
So if I am right and we see a shutdown tomorrow, I'll get a 14/15% Performance. Time will tell! If I am wrong... Well, I lose it all.
Stay safe out there,