Hi HODLers,
Kalshi and Polymarkets are fighting for the Predictions Market Hegemony!
Polymarket used to be the go to place for prediction market. Over the past few months, Kalshi took over the leading place! It made some deals with Robinhood, Webull, Solana, etc.. and expanded in the Sports Betting world.
Some numbers on this heavy fight!
- 62%: current market share of Kalshi, compared to 37% for Polymarket;
- $1.3 billion: monthly volumes recorded by Kalshi in September, a record since 2024;
Rcently, Polymarket acquired QCX for $112mn in order to reintegrate the U.S. market
Polymarket is rumoured to raise capital at a $8bn-$9bn valuation. This compares to a recent $5 billion valuation for Kalshi.
Kalshi became #1 as it was helped by regulators and financial groups. Its early investors count Trump family members, Charles Schwab, a bunch of VCs, etc... If it had been pushing so hard on sports and other "doubtful" prediction markets under Biden's administration, it would have been shut down.
As the tweet below highlights it, Sports Betting has become the largest category at Kalshi.
Sports Betting at Kalshi: 34% vs 5% at Polymarket.
Nowadays, the US is back to the Wild West type of regulation and grifter are enjoying very little pushback from regulators.
Don't get me wrong, I love prediction markets but I just thought it was unfair to other platforms following the rules.
Stay safe out there,