I posted a few articles about the limited price increase of Bitcoin during this last run. depending on what you take as a starting point it would be somewhere between 6.8 and 11X.
The 6.8X is if you would take the point in time just before BTC exploded hence July 2020 and 11X if you would take the lowest point in 2020 (March 16).
Now while reading an article from 
Previous bear markets caused an 80% drop from top to bottom. An 80% drop would take BTC to 14K.
Just like I did
Then it hit me, what is missing in mine and many other stories is a logically agreed starting and end point. So today I would like to take those based on the 4-year cycles.
How to measure a 4-year cycle?
As BTC was born in 2009 that would be the start of the first 4-year cycle.
Every cycle you have the BTC halving event and that is believed to be in the middle cycle.
We had halvings on 29 November 2012, 10 July 2016, and 11 May 2020. Hence the cycles would be:
- Cycle 1 2009- 2014 (29th Nov)
From $0.06 in Aug 2010 to $1124 in Nov 2013 is 19.000X and then dropped an 84% to $175 in Jan 2015.
- Cycle 2 2014- 2018 (10th July)
From $225 in Feb 2015 to $17.500 in Dec 2017 is a 77X and then dropped 82% to $3200 in Dec 2018
- Cycle 3 2018 - 2022 (11th May)
From$3200 in Jan 2019 t0 $68.000 in Nov 2021 is a 21X and BTC dropped 60% so far.
Now as I explained before it does not look like we hit the bottom yet, and using the cycles as a standard measurement did give us a 21X this cycle. But it also showed that the increases were still much higher in previous cycles.
But the most important takeaway for me is that during previous cycles regardless if we did 17.000X or 77X the drop was about 80%.
Even though I have a hard time believing that will happen again this cycle, mainly due to the mass adoption of Bitcoin creating a broader audience interested in buying the BTC dip, that 80% still is on my mind.
I am fairly certain that BTC will at least go down to 21K which is a 67% dip, but 80%???
I do expect broader adoption to diminish volatility, in the long run, we are still early but adoption is increasing rapidly....therefore my expectation would be that this could be the first cycle we do 70% and not 80%.
Have a lovely day, remember that hitting the like button is one of the few free things in life, and hope to see you tomorrow.
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The Crypto Weather Forecast is my daily take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, and Always Honest.
