I have been in this crypto space for quite a few years now, but I still consider myself a noob.
That´s because there is just so much crypto shizzle out there, this crypto-verse is huge and keeps expanding.
You just can´t dive into everything.
That is probably my latest lesson learned, you can not expect yourself to dive into every niche this crypto-verse is offering. You have to cut corners and make choices.
For me, it´s all about keeping it simple, meaning;
- No Leverage
- No difficult bridges
- No Airdrop Chasing
- No ultra-new projects
All those things can make you millions and I see it happening, but that's because of the high risk/reward ratio. And I found out that even though I am in crypto I am a pretty conservative baby investor.
By making those choices I also can get rid of a lot of BS, like technical analysis (TA). Now I get that when you play the leverage game that is helpful, although, in my opinion, very few people get it right. But for me, TA is just a waste of time.
My aim is the bigger picture.
Aiming Big
In my early days, I chased a few rainbows and unicorns, but I lost interest. Because when you are on a budget..... high risk is not the most effective way to manage your portfolio. So how do I manage my portfolio:
30-40% of my portfolio
For this first part of my portfolio, I used the market volatility to my advantage, by selling on the way up during a pump and buying back the dump.
Lesson Learned: Don´t sell it all in one place, but sell in phases on the way up.
Lesson 2: Set a low buy target because in a bull market the dump is bought up very quickly.
This tactic allowed me to grow my bags without additional investing and if you are too late to buy back one token it might be time to start on the next one.
Lesson 3: When people start whispering about the end of the bull market make sure you have already planned your exit strategy. Mine is moving into something stable like Gold or a gold-backed asset like PAXG until we start bottoming out.
30-40%
Where part 1 does not involve diamond hands at all, part 2 does. Although some Capo followers still fail to see it. But you better wake up, because: the bull market is back (for quite some time already).
When having diamond hands there are two things to consider;
- How big a chunk of your portfolio you wanna try holding till the top?
- How big a chunk you wanna take down with you to the next bottom?
Now this is where I messed up last time believing in Plan B´s 100k nonsense, it was the greedy baby getting the best of me. So none of that this time.
The chunk I am certain to sell on the way up is all my ALTS. I have done myself no good holding on to those thinking I was buying the dip last time.
Yes, I might miss out on a blow-off peak here and there but I will not be a bag holder this time. And yes, I am looking at least a year ahead but by the end of 2024, I want to be already 50% out of my ALTS and only be invested in those narratives that are new and have room to grow. Now that date is of course with a pinch of salt as you need to consider the bigger picture. What I am trying to say is; I will take profit on the way.
Now my biggest doubt is whether I should hold my HODL stash, meaning my 0.21 BTC and half an ETH. ATM worth 10K OMG I can not believe that one year ago when BTC was at 16K my total portfolio was 7.6K and I was still not at a loss but getting very close.
One year later, my HODL wallet is at 10K, now for full disclosure my HODL wallet is my biggest chunk. Even though after doing the math my trading wallet is catching up. But what to do with that hodl wallet at the top of a bull market. Well, that depends a bit on the bigger picture.
The Big Picture
When I talk about the big picture I am looking at two things:
1 The crypto cycle
2 Macro Economics
The Crypto Cycle
I have learned that if you want to put your trust in something: In Cycles We Trust.
There has been no other metric so spot on as the crypto cycles. Especially if you are not here to make short-term gains. And that is why I do not get these people:
I mean the guy is got lucky and he´s still early, but when we get that 30% pullback at some point...which we will get I think he will get scared and sell.
I mean you can´t blame people for being late to the party. It´s hard because I am so close to it, thinking why are you still buying the bear market has passed?
Why buy now?
Because people need to discover crypto and get in at some point.
But I can not stand these people who have been standing at the sideline and now are calling for a dip to buy low.
Mate, you are late and now you want to be a party pooper as well?????
You did not dare to buy when things were bloody hard. You did not invest during those 12 months that things were poo.
And now you are crying???
Crypto is a game, the market is a game, and it´s not a get-rich-quick scheme for most players.
But back to the dilemma, what to do with the BTC I have slowly hodled over all these years? If I trust the cycle it will lose 80% of its value when it hits the 2027 bottom. Now say we will hit 150K at the top, a feasible but still slightly conservative estimate. That will set the next bottom at 30K. Which sounds reasonable to me.
Now what would my losses be?
My 0.2 BTC would be worth 30K at 150K and 6K when I would hold it till we reach that 30K bottom. That is a 24K loss just on my beloved BTC, that is more than my whole portfolio is worth atm.
So based on that simple analysis, I should sell. But there is a big butt in the room.
The Macro Economics
That big butt in the room belongs to t elephant called macroeconomics, and there sits the twist, or possible twist this time around.
The world of crypto is not what it used to be, because things are changing, and it might not seem like they are changing fast. but they are.
There are two big changes that I see can reshape the cycle:
- Institutional and National Investors
- Fiat getting Rekt
The ETF is old news, and it´s starting to be priced in but there are bigger fish. El Salvador took a risk, and it´s starting to pay off, now on the back of that there are several poor countries that are looking at a similar investment.
But it´s not only the poor countries!
There are rumors that Qatar's sovereign wealth fund is looking to buy $500 billion worth of BTC. And even if they would not others probably will, because the popularity of the dollar as a global currency is at an all-time low.
This means that rich countries want to diversify, and they do not want to diversify in FIAT currencies anymore because they do not control those. They want to hold something that no nation-state can control, a printer that only prints what was agreed to be printed.
Now that and Blackrock coming in combined might create a whole new scenario, a scenario in which BTC will reach a new ATH but will not see another 80% drop at the end of the cycle.
In general, the macro looks very good for 2024; interest rates will drop, the US will turn on the money printer and so will China, and that looming session has proven to be a mild one for now....but will be back around 2027 I am sure of it.
Now the current positive Macro may indeed invite very big investors to start playing the Bitcoin game. But we also have to consider they are noobs on our playing field.
Coming from the land of compromises myself I think the truth will end up being somewhere in the middle. The BTC cycle will fulfill its repetitive motion and we will get a huge drop in the bear market.
Now will Wall Street and countries like Qatar be able to handle that?
Will they have included that in their expectations, or will they flee the market when everything is tumbling down? Because even a 40% drop is scary for a noob.
Bikini Bottom Line
I think they will sell, I expect them to take profit near the top. Diversify, hold on to a smaller part, and buy back at the bottom.
Why?
Because it is what smart money will do, smart money is not married to their holdings, they see the volatile trend and the bigger picture just like I do. They see that BTC tends to go down after shooting up, and they have only one goal .....to keep their funds SAFU and growing.
May I am projecting, as this is identical to what I currently plan to do. I will sell a part of my HODL portfolio once the bear market is confirmed. And then I can be the Party Pooper!
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pictures are by Meme, MyI & AI unless source is listed)