Are you too late?
Did you miss the BTC rocket to the moon?
Should you have gotten in earlier, now 50K already got hit pre-halving.
Well yes you are late, but is it too late? That is to be seen. Nobody knows the future and maybe all humans are dead a month from now (I hope I did not jinx anything).
But as we do not know the future we can only assume or base ourselves on history and (historical) data.
For me, there are three important events happening over the next six months that shape my mid-term plans.
The first one is the Bitcoin Halving
BTC Halving Data
We only had 3 previous halvings so this data is not reliable, hence the call for a pre-halving dip is based on 2/3 halvings, as we had a reasonable dip in 2012 & 2020 and a pump in 2016. So it makes as much or even more sense to expect a pre-halving pump in 2024.
Based on the current market, I don´t see a 25% dip or more happening pre-halving. Therefore the smarties planning to buy at 32K to get in before the halving, you are probably too late.
But there is a second chance, your chance for redemption because the one time we did not have a pre-halving dip we had a post-halving dip. And in all halvings after the dip, BTC goes flat for a little while. A little while being approx 60 days.
That means if you are still on the sideline you have two chances to get in before parabolic happens.
But you will have to get in between today and the end of June.
The End Of June
The end of June, are you certain?
I would be lying if I said I am, I am whatever you say I am and if I wasn´t.......
Based on data my educated guess is End Of June, and this is why.
Halving in April will be a narrative that focuses the attention on Bitcoin.
And if Bitcoin goes up, everything else goes up.
So the halving will create a positive narrative.
More on narratives in my previous posts:
What Am I buying (Pre- Halving) & More Important Why
What Narratives I Am Buying Pre Halving & Why
Sell in May
Sell in May and Go Away is a saying that has been around a lot longer than Bitcoin, it´s actually from before the 24-hour economy. But it still holds some truth.
All big traders & investors still use June to round up their businesses, sell the risky stuff, so they and their families can go on an undisturbed holiday.
Hence the market slows down and tends to go down.
The question is, is this still the case in 2024?
This is what I did in the past in May:
I did not listen the first year (2020), nor the second year (2021), and I wanted to sell the 3rd year but the pump I hoped to see never came and the same happened to me last year in June not enough pump to sell and go away.
So even when I wanted to sell I did not sell in May and sat there in June watching my crypto cookie crumble for the last three years,
These last three years I should have sold in May, but if you take a look at June 2020 the first June after a Halving there was no dump.
Still the chance on a June dump seems the most likely option especially because it would be after the halving Hype and after another market making or breaking Event.
The ETH ETF
Now I saw someone writing Ether ETF on a crypto news site and I was like what? That proves that I am knee-deep into this poo and I get easily confused.
Still, after the halving the ETH ETF narrative might drive the prices up.... till the end of May.
With Franklin Templeton filing for an ETH ETF we now have 8 contestants hoping for approval. An approval that will or will not come in May, one month after the halving as VanEck was the first to file for a spot ethereum ETF, which the SEC must either approve or deny by May 23.
That means that the crypto hype circus will keep dancing till ...... May! Having a sell-the-news event, at the end of May makes this sell in May sound very plausible.
Now even as I was not able to sell a bit into the pump last year so I could by the June dip I will do that this year.
In fact I already started, I was fully deployed two weeks ago. No dry powder left after that last 38K dip.
But since we touched 50K every penny I make on a nice sale will go to my buy-the-June dip account.
Hence if you did not get in yet, or still have too much dry powder and want to FOMO in.....maybe wait till June and never take financial advice from a Baby.
Bikini Bottom Line
But it all seems to connect a bit too well.
ETH ETF, Selling in May, Post halving flat, June Dips in 3 consecutive years.
It truly points to June being your last chance to get in or get lost.
Because as soon as we are 2-3 months into the halving see what happens:
Prices go up rather fast at first and parabolic soon after.
That is the time you want I want to be all in NFA, and my bet is we get one more opportunity. Not a 32K which many bears have been wining about but back to the low 40s would definitely fit the June Dip Profile.
Unless the ETH ETF is approved in May because that is an outlier that will shake up all predictions. Till then we can only take a look at data, macro, and future events. That is what I did and this is my estimated guess, my guesstimation!
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pics by MYI & AI unless watermarked or mentioned)
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!