After my article last week, in which I wondered why BTC was not surging, I am getting more and more Bearish. Especially Mid-Term meaning the period from June till November in my case.
Why doesn't BTC pump after all the Bullish Miami news?
The market had its run-up, and currently, we are still in the zone from which we can bounce back. But we are trending downwards ever since the 48K Bitcoin resistance could not be broken.
The Miami Bitcoin 2022 conference brought some very interesting things to look forward to. The supply shock for both ETH and BTC that is been advertised for months does not seem to happen...yet.
The large purchases made by MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor and Terra (LUNA) founder Do Kwon have had only a short-term impact. And this morning we tested the 41.7K resistance which is the last line of defense prior to braking below 40K.
We have been on this turning point since the weekend, where a breakout is imminent. The question is, is BTC going to test the 45K range once more, and was this just a correction. If so, this is becoming a very long-lasting correction.
Personally, I expect this whole year to not have extreme highs and extreme lows. Chopping around 30-50K till the end of 2023 would not be unexpected if you ask me. But with the ETH merge coming in Q2 of 2022 (I guess it will be in June) in the coming weeks we still might go for that 50K.
I can see a positive uptrend on both the daily and the weekly charts, so I am not too worried...yet.
If we get above 48K BTC for a week or two I will take profits on my ALTs as I am not betting on a new ATH for Bitcoin in the short term.
A new ATH for ETH then?
Well, I am not as Bearish as BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who predicts that Ethereum will fall to $2,500 by the end of June.
But many people are bullish due to that upcoming ETH merge, so until that happens I expect no huge drops. The market is adapting to the sanctions and the FED rate hikes, so we should stay above 39K just for the next 6-8 weeks.
Happening Now
While writing this BTC just dropped below 42K, again...which will make the support there weaken. And the rebound is not as strong as it was earlier today and before I published this article the drop continued to 40.7K. And as I am getting ready to hit Publish, we have visited what seems to be the bottom at 39.2K
That is it.... we are short-term doomed.
Bearish me is waking up from hibernation and thinking "I guess I will be hodling and stacking free crypto for the next 18 months." So guys and girls deal with it that I will probably be writing many more stories till I make my first crypto million in 2024😋
Only 18 months
Worst case scenario is indeed an 18-month crypto winter, although I do not expect the temperature to drop below 29K BTC, we might have another crypto winter till 2024´s Bitcoin halving will be insight.
Overall
Overall I am a pretty Bullish person, but the no-impact caused by positive inputs is really bugging me. Especially as it lasted over the weekend and has been lasting longer than a 'healthy' correction.
Now there is nothing as tricky as the crypto market and it´s Monday (probably Tuesday by the time you read this), but I ain´t buying for now. And when I am buying it will be ETH, BTC, and Terra just the strong ones because based on the past cycles, Winter is coming (and I already invested too much in so-called low cap gems).
Feel free to like my rambles, these are just my vision and no financial advice have a great day!
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