After Terra LUNA crash, crypto market cap fell by a lot, we entered into a bear market, bitcoin fell below 20K and many people got disappointed. Some prediction are that Bitcoin going to 10K, well that could be the case too.
Historically speaking this bear market could last a bit longer, because history repeats itself. There are many factors that's driving Bitcoin price, history is one of them. Yeah technical and fundamental analysis are certainly the big factors.
We might not see a big rally for next two years. Why? Historically, we have seen Bitcoin price shoots up after halving. And Bitcoin is usually down 50% or more at the time of halving.
(Bitcoin halving is when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half.)
Last Bitcoin halving occurred on 11th May 2020, when price of Bitcoin was $8,700 and after 1 year on 15th April 2021 BTC price went above $64,000. Prior to this halving bitcoin mining block reward was 12.5, now the reward is at 6.25.
Same thing happened on 28 Nov 2012, (first bitcoin halving) BTC price was $12 and price went up after 1 year on 28 Nov 2013 to $1200. That time block reward was halved to 25 from 50.
Second bitcoin halving occured on 9th July 2016, at $640, price went up at 17 Dec 2017 to $19,800.
So next halving will occur on May 2024, after that Bitcoin block reward will be halved from 6.25 to 3.125. And we are going to see a massive bull run. And if history repeats itself, then we may peak 1 year after halving .
This bear market is a great opportunity and will make many people a fortune. But wait, I am not a giving a financial advice here, you guys are already too smart.
Bitcoin price is derived by many other factors like inflation, taxes, technical analysis. It's not easy to predict the price of the bitcoin.
Only invest what you can afford to lose. This is just my opinion, always do your own research before investing. Thanks for reading.