Parabolic Shorting
The recent shorting in Bitcoin and other Altcoins left some people startled at what had actually happened. While various factors possibly caused this, I think there's a general pattern that interplays with sudden news and big private investors.
Market Trends
Beloved Hive Minds
In this post I'd like to share some thoughts about a theory I had a few months back. Sprung from general market trends, I had something on my mind at the beginning of the bull run in January.
My hobby, at times even a full time job was artist management at one point. I used to write proposals to marketing departments of large corporations to get sponsorship funds for publicity stunts at malls, public exhibitions, pop up markets or event venues such as concert halls, clubs or bars. I'd help program concerts, dance shows and live painting events and source the necessary personnel in the form of artists. It was basically a way for me to get gigs for my friends, who didn't know how to make excel sheets and issue invoices, but had other skills they didn't get honoured or appreciated for otherwise.
Usually around the month of April when these companies had filed their taxes, they began a new financial year, which made them quite generous and accessible. Specially when the amount of funds that were available for marketing and advertising were known. They were also particularly open minded when it came to shed out a larger budged for fun stuff like live painting and graffiti starting in May rather than later in their financial year.
Patterns
I think the S&P 500 sell off in the beginning of 2018 slightly coincides with the pump of crypto currencies.
We all know that the apparent Pandemic situation is ensuing a financial crisis that will probably go down in history once it actually plays out. The question is also if it really will? It's all just paper? At some point I guess we might wonder if the creators of the Fiscal Policies might know the faith of humanity?
Take into consideration the S&P 500 index, which is the Standard and Poor's 500 and means the stock market index of the top 500 performing companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Knowing that the US Dollar is still the world's reserve currency according to the IMF and the BCBS we have to think in terms of imperial grounds. Corporations such as American Big Tech and the general performance of the stock market plays an important role. We must not forget that corporate lobbyists have ties which don't just give them large government subsidies but these corporations are even partially state owned. Some stakes and vested interests can be traced to private shareholders. A stakeholder is not always a shareholder.
When it comes to whales, we have seen in 2017/2018, between USD 2-300 Billion that were pumped and dumped into the d-economy from possibly one entity or group in coordination.
Source Wikipedia. I know one should not list wikipedia as a source, but I trust that this chart won't be fake. One can clearly see that the financial crisis aftermath of 2008 ensues about a year after by stocks being dumped for possible liquidity. (Referring to a possible future financial disaster caused by the aftermath of the corona crisis)
Source Yahoo Finance S&P 500 Stocks currently Mirroring 2009, 2012
Now why would anyone sell stocks, if the Fed just keeps printing USD for Wall Street to buy them up? Inflation? One could also ask why anyone would sell their 10'000 BTC for a pizza if BTC goes to 100K? As much as one could argue whether anyone holding BTC since 2010 wouldn't want to liquidate their position at some point earlier than later? If power corrupts, then I hope that this value might be in the hands of some responsible individuals. These individuals might have an opportunity to change the world, having been at the right place at the right time. Or maybe recognising a significant opportunity and seizing it? I'd like to believe in the humanitarian benevolence of such people.
Trading View App
In a recentinterview with Willy Woo I saw on youtube, he mentions that most Bitcoins that were dumped weren't older bitcoins but relatively young ones bought during the 30k-40k mark back in January. The news about china banning crypto currencies and Elon Musk's tweet therefore caused a group of very wealthy individuals to join Elon's pump and dump game. We know he's been playing it since back in 2017 with Dogecoin. Are some celebrity pop kings and queens teaming up now and playing crypto casino with Elon? In a simple calculation if Elon would have pumped and dumped 20k BTC, it would have made him a lot of money. He was only worth 13 Billion in 2017 and propelled himself to take Jeff Bezos's place as the richest man on earth. Maybe with a little luck at the crypto casino? Just kidding ! I guess at some point Target costing and brilliant break even projections might be a skill we have to attribute to Elon. After all cash doesn't just come from profits, it can come from selling shares in your business or borrowing money. Elon is really smart in holding his cash positions. I actually can't imagine it's actually him but rather the people on his payroll.
During the recent FUD the SEC spree and regulator audits, caused various projects to be labelled as securities and might have resulted that a couple of new comers to the space to get shaky?
Trained Brats
People of high monetary status might know how to make more wealth, but that doesn't always make them truly philanthropic or environmentally conscious people, just because their wallets are large enough to pay for marketing?
Source space.com
I don't care if someone's a silicon valley brat and smoked a couple of joints too much that might resulted in him getting a speech impediment. Although I do really feel sorry for the dude if that's the case. I also don't give a fart if he likes nice cars and has a lot of people look up to him because he's accomplished according to a popular idea. For someone who gets to form a bank without a banking license, evade taxes in every way, getting support from government lobbyists and wants to nuke the marsian north pole in the name of humanity to speed up terraforming, he seems to pitch in like an awfully nice guy? He's brilliant! Reusable rockets! I still can't believe we still go to space with combustion... But we do! I mean, he makes electric cars right? I get it. People see him as a visionary even if rare earth minerals to make lithium batteries also have their downsides and take their toll on our environment? No matter how you sell it, renewable energy is replacing fossil fuel production because it's now cheaper. This was projected years ago. As much as Bitcoin can be and will be mined using renewable energy? Or Hathor for that matter? It's easy to bite the idea named ET3for a maglev system from a guy named Daryl Oster and then having to work around the patents. Coming up with possibly inefficient solutions for building such a transportation system might be because the former technology had partnerships and was researched on for more than a decade longer! I might care if half of the world would voluntarily get an invasive brain implant with a chip to replace the mobile phone and essentially turn into cyborgs. Maybe they will voluntarily embrace this option because they follow the proponents of this form of transhumanism and would like to advance to conform towards the demanded ideal. If some people think and act faster due to a chip that connects them, then others might feel inferior and follow the trend even quicker. Because one person disseminates fear that all of a sudden our toasters might awaken to magically enslave humanity and take over the world, doesn't mean that the rest of us don't have another choice but to implant brain chips?
I think everyone should have the chance to voice how they'd like humankind to transcend as a species.
VC's and World Dominance
Whether private investors or venture capitalists, the crypto currency space has become a home for institutional investors and VC's alike. For something that started out with a noble idea of open source, decentralised, censorship resistant and by the people for the people it's awfully uncertain if all projects in the space truly hit that mark. The fact is that the majority of mortals still haven't understood the economical implications that make this different from the currently accepted paradigm. The actual idea of marginal utility and eliminating middle men industries still hasn't resonated with everyone? The sheer number of coins in 2021 makes the space hard to overlook and reality becomes quite distorted. With yield farming and AMM's it's also turned into a sort of pointing game? It's hard to see what's truly happening behind the scenes. In a world still ruled by big tech such as google, apple, amazon and facebook with microsoft affiliated tentacles reaching far into the depths of the so called third world, one might wonder what motives and agendas so called humane initiatives carry. With projects like Cardano focusing on the unbanked as well, are they truly a match for infrastructure built by for instance moojaloop. That is if they at all compare? I think it's important not to loose track about what the space is. Real cryptocurrency communities can do so much for their inhabitants. Each of them is like a civilisations, where a currency becomes a direct and indirect exchange of value for it's people. The Question also remains how open projects like Endorphin are really going to be. Endorphin is an OS for smart phones and other end user devices for the Internet Computer. 
Conclusions
The Major Pump and Dump
In all of the above I tried explaining how the financial year would end in April and investors would then possibly want to liquidate their positions around then. I also tried to convey that long term BTC holders might want to liquidate their positions at some point? As this also might happen later in the year, for instance starting October before the year ends, one can never really follow a pattern. Unexpected news can simply turn the course of events and depending on the influence, cause parabolic scenarios as the one recently witnessed. If the S&P 500 drops, these sold stocks still have to get into dollars that then might flood the D-economy and it will be apparent when that happens. For now although this is just a theory. I am glad if anyone shares this opinion and could provide better proof for this than I did above. As the recent shorting happened, we would also possibly see a longing of BTC to the levels of 75-125k before returning to it's waters around the area we are currently. To leave even more room open, I can even imagine BTC retracing to 24K.
I'd like to add that a lot of Altcoins that people are vested in are being staked. At some point, more people will hold these coins. These will see an upside. Depending on their token economics we might see some of them being less volatile than others.
Another thing I would want to add is that this space is still very young and although much has been accomplished, we can clearly see that some projects aren't too much in a rush. A lot of them aren't even doing anything yet, while some leave us pondering what they're even ever going to do. To ask oneself the question if anyone really uses it right now might answer if the project is really valuable or worth investing in. While I think the space moves relatively fast there is still so much the tech still can't do. How could I ever tell anyone not to fall for false promises of the future when we are the ones who can make it? For anyone who believes that the web 3 isn't the future yet, I ask: What the heck are you doing here reading this?
Crypto Casino
Get rich fast? A lot of people who bought into bitcoin early had to know how to store them and they had to hold on to them for a long time if they wanted to reap the benefits. Imagine the amount of FUD they went through and the amount of perseverance required to latch on to them until today. For those who love the casino, I'd like to inform you that some of us are sick of a world where we have to exchange our time for money and work on assembly lines. Crypto Currencies are a way to change the course of this Orwellian avenue we might be headed on. With foundations based on noble ideas registered in a country that's core values are based on liberty, the DAO's of the future shouldn't just solve things like basic income for everyone. I don't think humans are best suited to waste their time on monotonous activities. If not us, then our children and decedents should have the opportunity to experience a world with an abundance of healthy stimuli as opposed to being exposed to destructive and violent parades that sculpt them into seeing it as typical. It would be awful if they'd wake up in a world where a every single payment can track their moves. For those who trust the governments of the world and can't see the nature of our cage, I suggest to imagine that you might not want to go back in time and wake up in nazi Germany being jewish. Imagine being a person from the future waking up in 2021. You'd probably think we're all slaves. You might also be shocked that some of us don't even question the extent of their liberty. Consider that some projects in the crypto currency space might solve the very basics of a collectively evolving human species in a permissionless, borderless, democratised system with the rights to privacy, liberty, freedom of speech and freedom of expression, whether of artistic or scientific nature. As much as we are tied to worthless paper, I wouldn't appreciate someone tying me to their dogmatic ideology or subjective values. I'd find it quite coercive if we were all tied to a chair and forced to jodel here in Switzerland. As much as I enjoy the disdainful looks of kids wearing airforce one bricks from 1986 when they spot me wearing 2019 barefoot tabi's, I don't mind them numbing their extra cellular matrix and inhibiting potential sensory connections while neglecting their fascia. It's their choice? What's yours? I do see it as an insecurity if we are robbed of our courage to make a choice because we are lead to groupthink according to the savagery portrayed in the media and by major corporations. I even see companies refraining from marketing campaigns because these aren't suited for mass adoption or because they don't think that some of us might respond to ingenious metaphors. Maybe it's better this way? Maybe we have to kill off the germs? Or maybe we should be nice and explain blind consumers that too much coca cola isn't healthy because the same corporations that sell sugar water, also own chemical companies that outsource generics and sell medicine for diabetes under a different name? I am still writing about crypto currencies here... I won't disdainfully look down upon someone just because they were brought up a way or because values are sold to them in a certain manner. I would still sit next to someone who would intentionally step on a bug and tell them it's cruel while respecting their choices as long as it isn't my foot. So forgive me if I don't care if dogecoin is getting dumped because I don't own any. If it isn't, it's probably part of a great community?
Staking in the future
If value is made from paper, these are made from trees. I guarantee that anyone who connects to them in forests and values them, shall be richly rewarded. As not a single tree but many trees connect to various networks, and their heads are in the soil, we must create our own networks and connect them together. As their view is up side down, we must imagine a world we never experienced before. This is the first time in human history we truly have a free market! We must not allow any one entity but us, the people to control our freedom. I believe in the internet of blockchains and that regardless what crypto, the space is currently turning into a community the more people understand what we're truly about.
When we look at VC's and how little of their endeavor for the common good can evolve into a consensus, a lot of things become apparent. Sitting on their narcissistic thrones, possible VC's are looking to reap benefits and fame for themselves rather than to share the credit with someone who might have a more noble approach. We also recognise that people like Daryl Oster were too early on in trying to create a consortium for a maglev train. I see that this is now more possible than ever with crypto today. Crypto has the power to change the world so much. If we don't want AI to be in the hands of tech giants like the four, we can start by using alternatives now. Do we really want a future where alexa advises us on what to buy, siri what to think, deep mind what to do, while our chatbot replies and creates automated posts about our private life? We might want to consider the alternatives? Open Source benevolent AI could change the world without us having to become cyborgs through a chip that won't just read but possibly also writes, if the tech already moves robotic limbs. Imagine an assistant that learns with us, to serve us, so we can evolve as humans and realise our true spiritual potential. None of us needs to deal with the monkey circus anymore and we can either just attend to nature or evolve humankind as a multi planetary and peace loving species. Attending to our biological and spiritual evolution, we wont have a rival. Even if there is a singularity, at that point we would have discovered our true potential.
If you think money can buy everything, learn to appreciate value. Be mindful that a persons greatest value can be sharing a moment. There can be one overlooked frame that could conceal a gift for an eternity. -
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