This post is a follow up to my previous post on the topic of Splinterlands Chaos Legion launch and selling out. With the information I had then, I surmised that Chaos Legion packs would sell out by the end of 2021.
Now we know more concrete details of the general sale, covered in this official post. Nothing changes about my prediction other than the launch date of the general sale. I maintain my prediction that Chaos Legion packs will sell out within two weeks of the general sale, or about February 1, 2021.
Let me breakdown the observable facts and my opinions that lead me to hold this position.
Fact 1: 12M packs will be left for the general sale starting January 17th.
Fact 2: Packs cost $4 in credits. SPS and DEC can be converted to credits on the Splinterlands website.
Fact 3: As of this post, there is 172,582,353 liquid SPS in the market, valued at $0.306. About $52,810,200 market value.
Fact 4: It only costs 12M * $4 = $48M to buy the remaining supply of packs at general sale.
Fact 5: There is enough liquid SPS out there to buy every last pack. That's without considering bonus packs being consumed by vouchers at no additional cost.
Fact 6: Splinterlands player growth is in "hockey stick" territory of exponential growth.
Those are the observable facts. There is a sufficient quantity of free, airdropped currency in the liquid supply to buy everything on January 17.
Now for my opinions.
Opinion 1: Held SPS has less utility compared to exchanging it for packs. Held liquid SPS has no utility. Held staked SPS yields returns in the form of more SPS and future voucher drops. Packs can be opened for immediate utility in the form of playable, rentable, sellable cards. I think it is better to convert free, airdropped SPS to packs.
Opinion 2: Held packs have more long term value than SPS. If we look at the history of Untamed packs in my previous post, they increased in value 40x from $2 retail up to $80 on Hive Engine. You bet I sold my Untamed pack inventory when it crossed $80. I'd be interested in a data-driven argument that makes a case for SPS increasing 40x. Without one, this opinion stands that players should exchange SPS for $4 packs if possible.
Opinion 3: The community collaborations I am seeing regarding group buys and mechanisms like the XCHAOS token suggest there will be a run on packs at general sale.
Opinion 4: Pairing with 'fact 6' above (exponential growth), these new players want cards to grow their collections and power levels for competing at higher tiers. I do not believe our community is sustainable on rentals alone. The Chaos Legion general sale represents the most cost-effective way to grow collections until the next set. And that next set is nowhere on the official roadmap.
When I put myself on the opposite side of the argument, I can only make an argument for holding SPS that leads to the same result... that a wave of DEC and inbound fiat will be used instead and still quickly buy up Chaos Legion pack supply without draining the SPS supply.
We should be on the lookout for one timely key indicator coming up: let's see what happens to the ratio of liquid:staked SPS between now and December 27th. December 27 is the day which is 7 days after 28 days before general sale. That's practically a riddle. It means if we observe a shift in the ratio toward liquid SPS by the 27th (presently about 45% liquid), we can infer people have started the 4-week unstaking process to be ready in time for the general sale.
I will follow up with a third post in this series on or around December 28 to check in on the SPS liquidity ratio! Let me know your thoughts on this position in the comments. Thanks for the read!
If you're interested in getting into Splinterlands, please consider using my referral link.