Many people start playing Gods Unchained because the cards are tradable for real money and because you can earn packs while playing for free. Many people are curious if it's a wise decision to hold as many cards as you can as opposed to selling unused cards for ETH/GODS, and the common answer to them is usually that cards hold their value in USD even when ETH/GODS is falling, and may be a better candidate for investment. It makes sense because card packs are sold based on their USD prices, so ETH/GODS prices should have less impact on card prices. Today, I'll be exploring why it may not be a good idea to hoard cards with the intention of investment. Do take note that this is ultimately just one side of the argument, and a case can be made for why cards may be a good investment.

Expensive Card Prices Deter New Players

It comes as no surprise that expensive cards deter new players from joining Gods Unchained, which indirectly affects the success of Gods Unchained as a whole. If meta decks are too expensive, newer players will be disgruntled - it's no fun having no chance of winning against an expensive deck without forking out thousands of dollars. Newer players will leave the game early while they still have no time or money invested in the game, effectively stunting the growth of the game.

Let's take a look at how much Tier 1 Meta decks cost in other TCGs. Disclaimer: I don't play any of these card games, so I may be wrong in certain areas.

Source: MTGDecks

The godfather of TCGs, Magic: the Gathering (MtG) has tier 1 meta decks that are mostly in the $100 - $400 range. That's not a lot of money for a meta TCG deck, especially when you consider that something like Gods Unchained's own Demogorgon is still being priced at about $1k after nerfs were announced, and this card is used in many late-game control decks as a staple with no alternatives that come close to its effectiveness.

Source: PokeGoldfish

Pokemon TCG, which experienced a surge in popularity in recent years, has meta decks that are only hovering about the $100 range. This price range is very attractive to new players since they have a shot at winning competitions even without having to shell out big money. The only thing that they need to do is to get good at the game.

Source: YuGiOh Top Decks

You get the point - most TCGs have meta decks in the standard format that max out in prices at a few hundred at maximum. At that price point, serious players get to have an edge over budget players but newer players shouldn't feel that it is too daunting to get into competitive gameplay.

Gods Unchained's most optimized meta decks are often at least 0.5 ETH (~$1300) and can go up to over 2 ETH (~$5200) depending on what kind of cards are included. For a game that only has 3 years of history, these prices are almost certain to deter new players.

And Player Complaints Lead to Nerfs or Rebalancing

The announcement of the Sleep 2.0 mechanic changes is almost certainly a reaction to Board Wipe Death (BWD) decks being prevalent in the ladder with close to a 70% win rate on average. The main issue with BWD decks is that the deck comprises mainly cards from the Genesis set which are evergreen (will always be in Standard format) and locked (cards cannot be rebalanced). The only reason that BWD decks aren't seen once every two matches are because of their prohibitive price.

When a deck that has way better win rates costs $5k to build, players will complain, or simply leave the game. The result of that was the Sleep 2.0 nerf - indirectly causing the ever-present Demogorgon to be nerfed even though no card text was changed. The price of a Demogorgon dropped from $1.2k to $874 when the changes were first announced - so much for cards being a better store of value!

While this is a good move for the overall health and longevity of the game, players who bought Demogorgons as an investment were surely pissed when the announcement was dropped. And in my opinion, this is just going to be the first of the changes that quell the strength of Genesis cards to level out the playing field. Re-balancing in the form of changed mechanics, like in this case, can happen. Indirect nerfs to Genesis cards due to newly printed cards with similar strength can happen.

But I believe that (card name) will become the next Black Lotus!

The history of MtG's Black Lotus is rich, with the Alpha version of it being printed in 1993. It took the Alpha Black Lotus nearly 30 years before it achieved its ridiculous prices. (A gem mint copy of an Alpha Black Lotus was sold for $500k on eBay in 2021) Will something like a Demogorgon or Jason ever become something like the Black Lotus? Almost certainly not. Expensive collectibles are often expensive because no one ever thought of collecting them back then, resulting in scarcity when nostalgia surges.

About hoarding current expansion cards / cheap cards

Since buying expensive cards from older sets come with a good deal of risk, you may think of buying current expansion cards in a bet that their prices will rise once the set is locked. Or you may think that buying cheap cards from older sets might be a better deal. Possibly, but most of these cards really don't have that much value individually and can take lots of effort and time to sell. Coupled with the fact that the GU team is heavily incentivized to sell new expansion packs for revenue, you may end up being more frustrated when you decide to sell.

The secondary market for GU cards works on a P2P model and only has sell-side orders. Liquidity bots will undercut your selling price and make for a frustrating selling experience. If you're okay with managing tens or hundreds of listings and battling bot price wars when you decide to sell in the future, go ahead. Personally, I don't think the effort is worth the potential payoff.

Conclusion

In my opinion, don't buy GU cards as an investment unless you really want to have them as an alternative investment. Cards can be indirectly nerfed even after sets are locked, and overly expensive cards will most likely get re-balanced in one way or another. Personally, while I think the future of GU is bright, I don't think it will be coupled with meteoric rises in card prices due to how much it would make the game landscape inaccessible for new players.

What do you think?

Post Header sources: ultimatearm from FlatIcon, Gods Unchained Cards

Deck info from GUDecks