Today the first day of the new Daily P&E system concluded and we found out how many GODs we've earned. I wrote a preview of this with the calculations they posted on the blog, but now we have real numbers and can get a better estimation of how this system will work out for us. I played a bunch of games today with an All Meteorite deck and one with that plus 1 Diamond and noted the fragment changes.
Here are some things I've learned:
-Seems like the maximum amount of fragments per game is 200 (if you have a winstreak and a full diamond deck in Mythic). If anyone has evidence otherwise, please let me know. Note this does not include the first 3 game's 2x bonus, i.e. you can get 400 the first game (technically you can't have a winstreak bonus for your first game so it's a little less than that).
-The winstreak bonus is a flat bonus as long as you've won the previous game, i.e the bonus per game is the same even if you've won 7 games in the row or 2.
-Something is a little off with the calculation in that the only way I can get my observed fragments to make sense is to make the Mythic rank modifier to be 0.915, which doesn't make sense because in their blog post they stated the winstreak bonus is 0.09, which when added to the Mythic rank gives over 100% Gameplay Modifier, at 105% or 1.05. Not sure if this is a bug or if there's something else missing.
-Your 200 max fragments per game is basically made up of 100 (105?) fragments for your Gameplay Modifier, and 100 for your Deck Modifier. Meaning, if you have a Gameplay Mod of 0.915, and a Deck Mod of 0.1568 (All Meteorite deck), you would get 91.5 + 15.68 = 107.18 fragments, which is what I observed for my first game.
-In my initial post I shouldn't have added the two modifiers together and divided by 2 to come up with % gain. Therefore, a winstreak will increase your earnings by ~8% and not divided by 2. However, since a winstreak is not something you can control, I will just assume you don't have one for the rest of the post (if you do get winstreaks, you'll earn more).
-Using today's community fragment total (this will change every day, but it's the one point of reference we have), if you won 3 games (no winstreak) to fully utilize your 2x bonus in Mythic using All Meteorite cards, you would have gotten 2.4 GODS
-Same assumptions, but you add 1 Diamond card, you would have 2.52 GODS for a 2.8% increase. If you had a Full Shadow deck, you would have 2.63 GODS. But like I stated in my previous post, having Meteorite but with 3 Diamonds instead would give you a larger bonus than that, and you would have 2.65 GODS, for a 5.1% increase over just Meteorite. If you had a Full Diamond deck, you would have 4.4 GODS, for a 79% increase over Meteorite. For MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE, if you had a Full Diamond deck and you won all 10 games for 9 winstreak bonuses, you would have 9.88 GODS. Do note that the numbers above are off by a very small amount due to me ignoring the fact that if you got more fragments, the total community fragments would go up too, but it's pretty insignificant.
-Now some payback calculations, let's just use 365 days of playing to get some estimates since that's one full year. For you to buy 1 Diamond to use in your deck over just all Meteorite, at today's community fragment total, GODS price, and GODS distribution total, it would have to cost $8 for you to breakeven after the year. To buy 3 Diamonds, it would have to cost $23 for all 3. To have a full Diamond deck, it should cost $225 if you want to breakeven in the year. To put it another way, if you play with 1 Diamond, you'd make $8 more of GODS after 365 days of playing. Again, this is based on today's price/fragment numbers, all of which will change. Secondly, this does not take into account the fluctuating card prices, because how can it?
-EDIT: If you have time to grind more than 3 wins a day, I did more calculations. Going from 3 to 4 Wins in a day (Mythic, Meteorite), you'd go from 2.4 GODS to 2.86 GODS, for an increase of 16.7%, more if you add in winstreak bonuses. For example, if you're pretty good and getting a 70% win rate, and assume 6 winstreak bonuses, you would have taken home 4.48 GODS. Grinding more wins seems to give a decent return, if you have the time to do it. Therefore, Win Rate is important to grinders, thus if you had a choice to put in a worse diamond card as compared to a better but just meteorite card, I'd go with the latter to keep your win rate up especially if you have time to play more games.
I'm technically on vacation so I can't make any cool charts and graphs, but I wanted to get this out there now for you to make some decisions about what you want to do with your collection/decks. I was initially going with 3 Diamonds, but from the way it is now, I think I'll just stick with what I got and just try hard to not drop out of Mythic, and get at least 3 wins a day when I can. Have fun! Let me know your thoughts.