Well, this certainly does make for a very interesting 2024 presidential race. I have kept up with all of the polls and predictions for months now, but this latest thing with Biden's COVID diagnosis really shook things up. That’s wild, the shifting of political odds. One minute Biden is just cruising as an incumbent; the next, he might drop out. That’s being bandied about.
I am not totally surprised, though. The topic of Biden's age began way before he entered the office and just had to yield health concerns sooner or later. What really caught my attention was his mention of thinking about withdrawing in the event that a medical condition crops up. That is some statement for a sitting president to make in the middle of a re-election campaign.
Now, I'm not one to put a great deal of faith in prediction markets, but that uptick from 46% to 68% for Biden dropping out is pretty hard to ignore. The ups and downs are just wild; it has gone up and down more times than I can count. Remember when they spiked after that debate with Trump? I watched that debate, and the truth is, I could see why people were concerned.
Talking about Trump, I do find it quite interesting how he leads in these prediction markets. Déjà vu 2016? I'd like to hear how, from the Republican camp, this Biden drama is being viewed: are they counting their chickens before they hatch, or maybe sweating over who might step in should Biden bow out?
What must the Democratic Party be doing behind the scenes? Getting a Plan B candidate ready just in case? Kamala Harris is sitting at 19 percent in those prediction markets, which isn't bad for someone who isn't even in the race officially. I think that the next few weeks will be pretty tough on the Democrats.
Now, about that George Clooney call-out: when Hollywood starts weighing in like that, you know things are getting serious. That just goes to show you how much sway celebrities can really have on public opinion and, thus, on prediction markets too.
I'll be very interested to see how Biden's team handles this COVID diagnosis. Will they downplay it to keep confidence high or use it as an opportunity to showcase his resilience? Either way, I think it's going to be a defining moment in this campaign.