The big curveball was thrown into the 2024 presidential race when President Biden announced that he was endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. This marked an unprecedented election, one where history will be rewritten with Donald Trump either returning to the White House or America getting its first female president.
As November 5th approaches, the polls tell the story: it's a nail-biter.
The recent debate between Harris and Trump on September 10th in Pennsylvania has been viewed by many as the defining moment in the campaign. Though public opinion following the debate would suggest that Harris has taken the lead in the eyes of many viewers, it is clear that this performance hasn't dramatically shifted the needle regarding voter intentions. This speaks volumes about the deeply entrenched views of the American electorate. We are dealing, by and large, with a constituency where people have already made up their minds.
The race has been tightening since Harris took center stage as the Democratic nominee.
Trump led Harris by significant margins nationally, but she has been able to eke out small but consistent leads in national polls. This doesn't give much, or rather, too much meaning to the nationwide numbers, for this is a race decided in just a few states, with margins razor thin.
Consider Pennsylvania.
That is clearly one of the must-win states, considering the large number of electoral votes at its disposal. Nonetheless, the less-than-one-percentage-point gap between Harris and Trump in this state highlights how volatile this election could really turn out to be. All in all, not very different from those nail-biting finishes seen in 2016 and 2020, where a few thousand votes in key states decided the outcome.
Then come states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Formerly Democratic stronghold states that Trump flipped to red in 2016, only for Biden to win them back in 2020. For Harris to try to retain these could very likely be the deciding factor in this race for the presidency.
What does that suggest about the impact of Harris's performance
She won the night in the court of public opinion, sure, but the lack of a significant polling bump begs the question:
Are debates not the game-changers they once were?
In an era of hyper-partisanship and information bubbles, are these televised showdowns simply spectacle?
All these polling numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. The problems that led to underestimating Trump's support both in the 2016 and 2020 elections have not been fully resolved. Though steps are being taken to improve on these shortcomings, projections that deal with voter turnout and accurately reflect the composition of the voting population are an inexact science.
Toss into this potent mix the extra ingredient of uncertainty, represented by the hotly contested races in battleground states. At margins like these, all it would take is voter turnout, a last-minute development, or even the weather on Election Day to tip the scales. It really does mean that every vote counts in these tightly contested areas.
With November rapidly approaching, both campaigns have their work cut out for them.
For Harris, to solidify this slight lead and make actual gains in the key battleground states, she would have to sell herself to the electorate as a new beginning, while building on the successes of the Biden Administration.
Meanwhile, Trump seeks to win back the White House and vindicate his vision of America. This is something he desperately needs, "to energize his base and woo undecided voters in those so-called swing states." This former president has proven, however, time and time again that he can never be underestimated.
Finally, this election is not just about Harris versus Trump; it is a referendum on the direction the country and democracy in America are taking, on values shaping the future of the nation.
