I have been thinking about the approaching 2024 presidential election. There's so much talk about how President Joe Biden will run again.
Let's now get into this rather interesting topic.
I want to talk about the prediction markets, where people wager on political events.
Well, according to Polymarket, it looks to me like a majority of more than half the bettors believe Biden might drop out of the race in 2024. Wow, what a number that is! Now, what exactly makes everybody think so?
First off, there is the factor of Biden's age. He will be 81 if he decides to run in 2024. Could he not be a bit too old for a president? Even Obama, the former president, is said to have whispered to some people about his concern regarding Biden's age and energy level. Does that not make sense? After all, it is significantly troublesome and somewhat tiring to lead a country; indeed, people have started feeling that Biden does not seem as energetic as before.
Now, on Biden's approval ratings, they have declined much over the last year. Why? Principally due to high inflation and other economic problems which came about during his leadership. When people feel the pain in their wallets, their fingers start pointing at those responsible. And that sets some Democrats on edge regarding these approval ratings. They are thinking, "Is Biden our best way into 2024?
But here's the exciting part: while all this worrisome context was piling up, Joe Biden has repeatedly clarified that if his health holds out, he will run for a second term. Big "if" there, right? It shows you he's confident but gives him a way out—the space for doubt: what if his health takes a turn? What if he just decides that the whole thing is too much?
But back to the prediction markets. The odds we discussed above indicate that most people, even in Biden's party, are pessimistic about his prospects. They don't believe he would pull it off. This skepticism is not just due to age or health but extends to the political landscape, which can change like a flash in politics!
Now, say Biden doesn't run. What then? Most people believe Vice President Kamala Harris would move in. Yep, she's the natural choice, right? Well, she would have problems of her own. Being a vice president is much different from being the top candidate on the ballot. She would have to prove herself entirely new to the electorate.
It's also possible Biden might face a strong primary challenge from another Democrat. This hasn’t happened yet, but who knows? Politics is full of surprises. With just a couple of months before the election, anything can happen.
What do you think? Will Biden run again? Let me know your thoughts!
